JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 10:33 PM EDT645
FXUS63 KJKL 180233 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1033 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday through Wednesday
behind a cold front passage late Saturday night.
- Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Sunday and
Monday, especially in the afternoon and early evening, with a
drying trend for Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024
Updated grids, especially PoPs and sky for latest trends form the
regional radar loops. Dropped overnight lows just slightly after
impacts of evening convection. Lows may have been met, at least
until the cold front pushes through the area later tonight. Temps
may actually rebound just slightly through the remainder of the
night. Active night, but intensity of storms have been gradually
decreasing with time. However, there are still some respectable
storms out there with breif, locally heavy rainfall and intense
lightning. These last cluster of storms will continue to pass
through eastern Kentucky over the next few hours. Will see
considerably less activity overall, but the threat of at least
some minimal (isolated) convection will continue through the
overnight period for portions of the area. Another round of
showers and storms is expected to impact the area tomorrow.
Trends have been for slightly less activity Sunday and even less
on Monday. The hrrr has been fairly consistent with convection
being focused in the southwest tomorrow. Will continue to
evaluate. Updated grids and zones have been issued.
UPDATE Issued at 513 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024
Did a quick update to do a fairly big overall update to the PoPs
given the line of storms rolling through parts of eastern Kentucky
late this afternoon and evening. These have been strong to severe
at times and will continue to track southeast. Outside this
overall minor update for other elements.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 505 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024
We are seeing a notable upper low push across the Great Lakes this
afternoon and this will reflect down to the mid-levels with embedded
shortwaves riding through the associated trough axis across the
Ohio valley. We saw a notable boundary where cumulus first
developed this afternoon and this has overall been one of the main
focus areas for convection this afternoon. Some of these storms
have been spiting at times given the somewhat straight and
concave up hodographs noted in the SPC mesoanalysis. There
remains a risk of severe storms through the remainder of the
afternoon and perhaps into the early evening before storms should
loose better daytime heating. Outside this very little changes
were needed for the near term forecast this afternoon.
Tonight, most of the convection will relent through the evening, but
some of the CAMs indicate possibly a bit more in the way of showers
and thunderstorms into the late night hours. However, CAMs have been
all over the place in the way of where convection will be and
haven't been managing the convection this afternoon well. This leads
to a fair amount of uncertainty. Given this went more toward a
southeastward trend with PoPs through the evening and overnight.
This seems to be reasonable given the more cold pool look this is
taking on. The highest PoPs will be early in the evening before
tapering from west to east through the night. This trend will have
to be watched given the uncertainties and lack of CAM support.
Outside this overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday, we will see increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and evening. This as a mid-level trough
deepens in the Ohio Valley and it ushers in northwest flow at the
surface leading to PoPs in the 60-70 percent chance range mainly
during peak heating hours. However, given the northwest flow
regime these showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could continue
into the evening and perhaps the night, but the HREF suggests
overall the trend would be downward for showers through the night.
This will have to be looked at closer in additional updates.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 412 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024
The extended period will start off quite active, as an area of low
pressure moves through the area on Monday. We will see showers and
scattered thunderstorms rumbling through as the trough moves off to
the east. The rain should taper off late in the day, and be out of
the area by early Monday evening. After that, a large and well
developed ridge of high pressure will settle over the region, and
will bring dry and very pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky the
rest of the week. A much cooler air mass will advect into the region
on northwest winds through the middle of the week. In fact, we could
see daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday, making it feel more like fall than mid-summer. With clear
skies, light winds, and strong sunshine, the air mass will finally
begin to modify on Thursday. Highs on that day should rebound to
more normal highs in the lower 80s. Thursday and Friday should be
even warmer, with highs on each of those days reaching the mid to
upper 80s.
With ridging overhead, and light winds and clear skies expected,
conditions will favor ridge valley temperature splits most nights.
Some valley locations may fall into the upper 40s Tuesday night and
Wednesday night, with low to mid 50s everywhere else. We could also
see patchy valley fog each night, especially early on after the rain
event moistens everything up. The only weather hazards to speak of
would be cloud to ground lightning that will be possible with any
thunderstorms on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2024
Thunderstorms are currently passing through the area. Flight
conditions have been predominantly VFR outside of thunderstorms.
Bases of these storms have been relatively high, above 030 AGL.
However, there has been some very strong gusty winds associated
with the strongest storms and VSBYS lower to less than a mile
with a direct hit from any thunderstorm. Storm motion is quite
high. Thus the decreases in flight categories will be short lived.
Storms will continue to work through the area during the evening
hours before dissipating. The stronger storms at TAF issuance were
generally located south of the I-64 corridor, and that continues
to be the case. Expect a lull in activity through the overnight,
though some isolated to widely scattered convection can not be
ruled out at any time. The next best round of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive during the day Sunday, where at this
time our southwestern most terminals, KSME and KLOZ appear to be
most impacted. Winds will be light, around 5 kts from the west,
southwest but will veer out of the west-northwest Sunday at 5-10
kts. Of note however, is that winds will be variable and gusty in
the vicinity of any storms.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 10:33 PM EDT---------------
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