IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 2:56 PM EDT281
FXUS63 KIND 151856
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
256 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light showers, a few thunderstorms tonight
- Warmer tomorrow with isolated showers/storms
- Scattered showers and a few storms possible at times over the
weekend
- Another prolonged stretch of mild and dry weather likely next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Rest of Today and Tonight.
Scattered showers with an isolated rumble of thunder will continue
through the rest of the afternoon hours as residual moisture from
earlier convection continues to move eastward. Synoptically, a low
pressure system continues to slowly move eastward out of the Dakotas
into Minnesota with weaker shortwaves to the south bringing the
repeated rounds of precipitation to the area. Temperatures continue
to struggle to rise out of the 70s and based on upstream cloud
cover, it looks unlikely that anywhere outside of the southern
portions of the forecast area will be able to reach 80. Through the
evening, don't expect anything more than a rumble of thunder or two.
A slightly better chance for organized convection is expected later
into the overnight hours as convection that will initiate across
Missouri pushes eastward. Latest model guidance hasn't had the
southern dive that earlier runs has, mainly due to the fact that the
storms are expected to generally remain elevated vs surface based
and won't be as tied to the thermal and theta-e boundaries. Coverage
should peak towards 3AM with thunderstorms exiting after daybreak.
Severe weather looks unlikely with the storms expected to remain
elevated and with little instability above the stable layer, hail
larger than peas looks unlikely as well.
Friday.
Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday with skies expected
to clear out by the mid to late afternoon hours with only diurnally
driven cu by 20Z. As cold air moves in aloft, this will create a
slightly unstable atmosphere which could allow for isolated showers
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder towards the afternoon hours
along with efficient mixing of the surface moisture. Plan on
dropping afternoon dewpoints to factor in this mixing out of
moisture and will bump up gusts into the low 20 mph range. The
clearing of skies should allow for fairly warm afternoon highs in
the mid to upper 80s even as the colder air aloft moves in.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Friday Night into Sunday -
A large upper level low will drift slowly through the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions Friday night into Sunday, with at least some
chance for showers and thunderstorms much of this time frame, though
chances will be maximized near and just after peak heating in the
afternoons. Relatively modest at best instability and shear suggest
little to no severe threat, with primarily weak diurnally driven
convection.
Sunday night through Thursday -
As the low exits to the east and strong upper ridging persists to
the west, much of next work week looks to again be quite comfortable
for the time of year, with below normal temperatures and low
humidity as a broad surface high traverses the region, and dry/cool
northwest flow aloft on the leeward side of the ridge keeps this
pleasant airmass in place. The amplitude of the ridge will keep any
disturbances well north of the area.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Impacts:
-Brief MVFR to IFR vsbys in heavier showers this afternoon and
tonight
-MVFR cigs towards daybreak tomorrow.
-Potential for isolated TSRA after 06Z through 10Z
Discussion:
Scattered showers will impact LAF,BMG, and IND through 20Z with
generally dry conditions afterwards through the evening. There is a
low potential for additional convection before 06Z, but chances look
too low for a TAF mention. Will put a PROB30 group in for after 06Z
when confidence begins to increase in another round of showers and
storms. MVFR to IFR vsbys look to be main impact outside of
lightning along with brief MVFR cigs towards daybreak tomorrow.
Winds should generally remain southerly at 4-10kts through the TAF
period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...White
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 2:56 PM EDT---------------
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