IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 12:59 AM EDT743
FXUS63 KIWX 130459
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1259 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonable through Wednesday.
- Chance of rain returns late Thursday and continues into the
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
Water vapor imagery this evening depicts two distinct channels
of sheared vorticity across the Great Lakes into the Mid MS/OH
River Valley. Weakly confluent low level flow in association
with the Great Lakes channeled vort max combined with axis of
low level convergence has been enough to promote scattered
sprinkles and some brief rain showers along an axis from KAZO to
KJYM to KTOL. Over the next few hours, loss of a link to weak
sfc based instability and increasing low level CIN should
diminish this potential after 03Z. Another area of mainly light
rain/sprinkles has been noted from east central IL into central
IN with the southern vort max. Moisture return has been mainly
mid level in nature and relatively dry low levels should limit
precip to sprinkles across south central portion of forecast
area late evening. Otherwise, could see some patchy shallow fog
develop again overnight, particularly across the north where
some lesser cloud cover is expected as mid level cloud deck
slowly sags southward. Confidence is not high enough to include
in gridded forecast, but something to monitor for the overnight
hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
Quiet, tranquil pattern continues in response to large scale
ridging across the OH valley/lakes. However some changes are
afoot as nrn stream shortwave over BC amplified ewd into the
nrn lakes midweek and robust moisture return develops from the
srn plains newd into the lakes.
Most robust forcing/moisture advection in association with this
sys expected late Thu and will confine likely pops to Thu
evening yet keep broad spread of chc pops in through Sun as
this wave wraps up to some degree aloft across lower Michigan.
Otherwise seasonable temps expected.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
High pressure will remain over the region for another day
accompanied by light winds and clear to mostly clear skies.
There is an outside chance for a brief intrusion of patchy
shallow ground fog at the terminals around daybreak, but any
fog is not expected to be operationally significant.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 12:59 AM EDT---------------
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