IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 6:25 PM EDT301
FXUS63 KIWX 112225
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
625 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Remaining cool for early August through much of this week.
- Dry weather is favored through at least midweek.
- Increasing chances of showers beginning Thursday through the
end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes provides generally dry
conditions and comfortable temperatures through at least midweek.
Two disturbances, one on Monday afternoon and the second on Tuesday,
threaten to bring light showers to parts of the forecast area.
However, forecast soundings are incredibly dry on Monday, with a
stout dry layer below 700mb Monday afternoon (12z HRRR).
Tuesday's moisture profile (12z NAM) shows limited saturation
near 850mb and a generally dry column elsewhere. Ensemble mean
forecast soundings are similar through Tuesday morning.
Temperatures rise beyond 80 degrees by Wednesday as the aformentioned
high shifts further east in response to ridge building over the
Central US. This would typically suggest building heat to come,
but in this instance a cut-off low is forecast to develop by
late week bringing an increased chance of rain and a return to
cooler-than-normal temperatures. The in-house blend is bringing
POPs in way too quickly amid this pattern. While I've generally
stayed close to the existing forecast, I've also taken an
aggressive approaching slowing the arrival of rain, in line with
the latest guidance. This low may linger through the weekend,
resulting in slight chances for showers.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Winds and cloud cover will quickly diminish around the start of
the period, with little more than some fair weather cu once
again tomorrow afternoon (VFR bases).
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 6:25 PM EDT---------------
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