JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 4:02 AM EDT962
FXUS63 KJKL 130802
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
402 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures gradually rise to return to near normal levels
through Thursday.
- Humidity and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms will
climb late in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
The short-term period through Wednesday afternoon will remain mostly
uneventful as surface high pressure remains in control below an
active mid-level jet stream aloft. The most eventful weather occurs
this morning as a passing mid-level disturbance brings a few
sprinkles or light rain showers to a few locations. However, the
vast majority of locations will not see any precipitation at all.
Clouds decrease through the morning as drier air moves into the
region from the northwest, with this drier air mass remaining in
place through the remainder of the short-term period, with only
passing high clouds from time to time.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
Upper level troughing across much of the Ohio Valley will remain the
main story through much of the extended. We start off the period
Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is consequently the one day that
we have rising heights across the area. This day KY will find itself
between a departing upper level low, and another developing system
upstream across the Northern Plains. Consequently, Wednesday will
also be our last dry day of the period.
Heading into Thursday, though heights are still technically rising
across the state, a shortwave will be strengthening to our west,
eventually developing into a closed upper level low. This will
translate to a strengthening system at the surface as well, which
will push eastward and into the Ohio Valley Thursday. There is
already quite a bit of difference in the models at this point, with
most keeping east KY dry throughout the day Thursday, then moving
precip in Thursday night into Friday. However, there are also a
couple of solutions (including the NAM), which brings the precip in
during the day Thursday. Kept with the NBM given the uncertainty,
which is also favoring the later precip start times, but does
introduce some isolated pops late in the day Thursday. Better precip
chances will definitely be Friday, however, as the system continues
to push eastward and heights begin to fall again as the trough
starts to overtake the Ohio Valley. A surface cold front will also
pass through the state on Friday as well.
From this point forward, the Ohio Valley will basically be the midst
of another sustained troughing period, on the receiving end of any
disturbances that moves through. Again, there is quite a bit of
disagreement in the models, especially in any subtle shortwaves, so
stuck with the NBM. This kept precip chances in the forecast just
about every day, peaking with afternoon heating.
Thursday and Friday will likely be the warmest days, with highs in
the mid and upper 80s, ahead of the next approaching system and the
return of southerly flow at the surface. After this frontal system
moves through, cooler temperatures will return as NW flow takes hold
once more. Highs will generally top out in the lower 80s for the
rest of the forecast period. Did include some ridge/valley
differences in temps and winds overnight, namely on the nights where
clouds and precip were least expected. This included Tuesday night
and Sunday night into Monday night. Even these last 2 days could
change if precip chances increase, but given the potential for
clouds and ongoing precip the other days, didn't have enough
confidence to lower temps and winds in the valleys beyond what was
already forecast at this point. Will continue to monitor with coming
forecasts in case more detail does need to be added here for
ridge/valley differences.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
VFR conditions are expected under extensive mid- and high-level
cloud cover associated with a passing disturbance, decreasing in
coverage between 12z and 18z Tuesday as the disturbance exits
east. Some sprinkles or brief light rain could fall from these
clouds between now and about 12Z. Winds are still expected to
average around 5 KT or less, generally from a north to northeast
direction.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 4:02 AM EDT---------------
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