IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 6:59 PM EDT328
FXUS63 KIND 112259
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
659 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing cloud cover tomorrow, with very low chances of light
showers in the late morning and early afternoon.
- Daily storm chances increase mid week into next weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Rest of Today and Tonight...
High pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley remains the
primary feature for the region, ensuring another day with partly to
mostly clear skies and cool conditions. Normalized PBL dry adiabatic
lapse rates have lead to afternoon highs in the upper 70s for most
locations. These steep surface lapse rates and modest low level
moisture have been sufficient enough for a patchy cu-field this
afternoon. Winds have been a little stronger as pressure gradient
sharpens still on the periphery of the surface high. This has lead to
a modest 8-12kt sustained wind out of the NW/NNW. A few occasional
higher gusts are possible, but shouldn't be consistent with a
marginally higher LLJ aloft.
Central Indiana will see the full impacts of a quickly cooling and
decoupling surface layer this evening through tonight. The cu-field
will quickly erode near dusk with winds becoming light and variable
to even calm in some portions of the state overnight. Luckily, dew
points will remain low limiting any fog development. Expect
overnight lows to bottom out in the mid to upper 50s tonight.
Tomorrow...
With the high pressure moving off to the east, winds will start to
veer towards southerly. This should allow for subtle moisture
increases with dewpoints back towards 60. Overnight, an MCS is
expected to develop over Missouri, and push eastward. The remnants
of this will likely reach central Indiana sometime Monday morning
into the early afternoon. Due to the preceding dry air mass and weak
flow near the high pressure system, the remnant shouldn't be anything
more that left over upper level cloud cover by the time it reaches
central Indiana. However, but a few isolated showers cannot be
completely ruled out if the MCS is able to maintain itself further
through Illinois than currently expected.
Although the overall airmass will warm slightly, surface
temperatures will likely still remain below normal due to the
greater upper level clouds. Expected afternoon highs in the upper
70s to low 80s tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Monday night through Wednesday night...
Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through midweek with
only a slight chance for rain at times across far west/southwest
portions of the area. Look for upper troughing to remain in place
through Tuesday before an upper ridge centered over the central
CONUS shifts eastward towards the area midweek. At the surface, high
pressures is likely to remain dominant limiting the potential for
rain. The best chance for rain during this period is on Monday night
as a shortwave moves through the region. Any rainfall that occurs
should remain light as forecast soundings show a pocket of
subsidence induced dry air in the low-levels from the surface high.
Despite upper troughing, temperatures will continue to gradually
warm up due to subtle warm air advection and increasing heights
aloft. Forecasted highs in the mid 80s on Wednesday are near
seasonal for this time of year.
Thursday through Saturday...
A more active pattern sets up towards late week once the upper ridge
moves farther east allowing for the storm track to shift towards the
Ohio Valley. Guidance shows a deep trough over the central CONUS
progressing eastward with deeper moisture retuning northward. This
will provide the potential for daily rain/storm chances though
increasing model spread limits confidence in exact details at this
time. Greater cloud cover and rain chances may help to keep
temperatures slightly below normal. The slightly cooler temperatures
will be hard to notice due to the increasing humidity later this
week.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 659 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Impacts:
- Patchy fog possible at the outlying terminals around daybreak
Monday
Discussion:
High pressure remains over the region this evening as cirrus drifts
through the Ohio Valley and diurnal cu gradually diminish. The
cirrus will linger overnight but will do little to enable another
night of good radiational cooling as winds lighten. Patchy fog is
possible at all but KIND in the predawn hours through daybreak
Monday.
Any fog will dissipate quickly with the high persisting across the
region. Mid level clouds will expand into the area during the
afternoon as a wave aloft approaches...but the lack of any moisture
within the lower levels will limit any threat for rain to far
western Indiana late day and that will be isolated and very light.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 6:59 PM EDT---------------
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