ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 6:45 AM EDT539
FXUS61 KILN 071045
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure
centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near
the southeast coast. Another cold front will move into the area
Friday, providing additional cooling and drying for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Based on wind observations, the surface cold front has now moved
through about two-thirds of the ILN forecast area, with winds
now shifting to the northeast for most locations north of the
Ohio River. Based on temperature and dewpoint observations, the
difference in boundary-layer air on either side of the front
does not seem to be all that pronounced. There is a gradual and
not-well-defined drop in T/Td with northward extent, but no
sharp gradient at this hour. An expanse of low stratocumulus
clouds has developed behind the front, and these clouds will
likely remain in place through mid to late morning.
Despite northeasterly surface flow becoming even more
established across the area this afternoon, there will still be
a wedge of higher theta-e air extending from the southeastern
CONUS through the west side of the Appalachians into the ILN
forecast area. This means that dewpoints will likely stay in the
70s in the southeastern ILN CWA through the day, with max
temperatures in this area reaching the upper 80s. Heat indices
could even get into the mid 90s for some locations (Lewis KY /
Scioto OH and vicinity). With lower pressure in this area
overall, and some instability (SBCAPE of around 1000 J/kg), a
few showers could develop in the southeastern CWA this afternoon
and early evening.
Most of the rest of the forecast area should remain dry, with
lessening clouds as the day persists, and highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The weather pattern for Thursday looks similar to Wednesday,
with generally lower pressures extending from the southeast
(associated with Debby) and into the Ohio Valley along the west
side of the Appalachians. This eastern half of the ILN CWA will
be in a regime with higher theta-e air, some marginal
instability, and little inhibition. Some low-end precipitation
chances will be maintained.
Heat indices in the 90s are possible on Thursday, particularly
in the southeastern ILN CWA -- with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For Thursday night into Friday, the remnants of Debby is
forecast to be a bit farther west than previous model runs, but
should be far enough east of our area as to not pose a big
factor in our sensible weather. That being said, a large scale
mid level trough will be digging east/southeast into the Great
Lakes and parts of southeast Canada. This will push a cold front
east through the region. Will continue to hold on to low
chances of showers and storms east until frontal passage.
Temperatures will be seasonable for August.
For the upcoming weekend, the mid level trough will traverse
east into the remainder of southeast Canada, the eastern Great
Lakes, and New England. As this occurs, surface high pressure
will wedge east into the Ohio Valley. Any convective activity
associated with the mid level trough should remain north and
east of our region. Thus, it will be dry, less humid, and
cooler. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s north to the
lower 80s south. Lows will mainly be in the 50s.
For early next week, Monday into Tuesday, it now appears that
surface high pressure will continue to extend across the Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Will keep the forecast dry.
Temperatures will moderate a little.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some MVFR clouds will impact the TAF sites over the next few
hours, with a chance of some brief IFR at KDAY. By 16Z, ceilings
should return to VFR categories. Northeast winds today will be
about 10 knots.
Tonight into Thursday morning, there is a chance that some low
clouds could develop again, but confidence is not high enough to
include this in the forecast as of now.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hatzos
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 6:45 AM EDT---------------
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