LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 3:05 PM EDT767
FXUS63 KLMK 081905
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A slight chance for an isolated shower or storm in the I-75
corridor this evening.
* Dry cold front passes through Friday morning, leading to less
humidity for Friday.
* Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower
humidity. Gradual warm up in temperatures next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
Our region is located between two weather systems, with TS Debby to
our east, and an approaching cold front from the west. Upper level
cloud cover associated with the tropical system is spreading out
over our eastern half of the CWA, and on top of a dense diurnal cu
field. Similar to yesterday, a few isolated showers and a storm or
two will be possible in the I-75 corridor late this afternoon and
early evening where there is theta-e advection and some moisture
convergence taking place. Sfc temps have warmed into the mid-80s,
accompanied by dewpoints in the 70s. We've been able to destabilize
to around 1000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE across east-central Kentucky. A
lack of shear, along with meager lapse rates and mid-level warming
will limit strong storm potential. Though the general flow in the
column is fairly weak, which does pose the risk of some very slow
moving cells. Some localized high rainfall amounts could be
possible. Despite all of this, PoPs are pretty low, and will keep
them below a 20% chance. Better chances for precip will be across
eastern Kentucky, where better moisture will be associated with
Debby. West of the I-75 region, dry conditions are expected this
evening.
For tonight, any precip activity will be diminished due to the loss
of heating. Additionally, the weak cold front will be approaching
from the northwest, and should be passing through by the early
morning hours. We should be post-frontal by the afternoon. Expect a
dry FROPA as we'll be lacking any deep moisture. Tomorrow will be a
nice day, with mostly sunny skycover, slightly cooler temps (lower
80s), and dewpoints in the 60s. Even nicer weather will arrive for
the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
Quiet weather continues through the Long Term as upper ridging
builds over the Plains beneath a seasonably weak upper jet. At the
surface high pressure will slowly advance form the American Plains
and Prairie Provinces southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys over the weekend and remain there into early next week. This
will bring moderate temperatures and comfortably low dew points to
the region. Afternoon dew points on Saturday should drop at least
into the lower 50s, which is more typical of the first of October.
Air temperatures will peak around 80 that day with plenty of
sunshine.
Next week nightly LLJs will pulse over the Plains, but most
convective activity will remain to our west. Could see a few diurnal
showers/storms here by Wednesday/Thursday as heights and
temperatures rise, and atmospheric moisture content increases
slightly. Given this, plus the possibility of something sneaking in
from the west, will hold on to the small NBM PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
Mostly VFR conditions across the region, though a dense SCT cu field
has developed and is low enough to be MVFR if a ceiling forms.
Otherwise, an isolated chance for a shower remains possible this
evening for LEX and RGA, but dry elsewhere. VFR continues overnight,
with winds mainly from the NNW. Increased cloud cover associated
with TS Debby will persist over the LEX/RGA area, but no impacts are
anticipated at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 3:05 PM EDT---------------
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