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796 FXUS64 KMOB 131943AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday)Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024The line of storms that brought the damaging wind gusts and heavyrain to the area this morning have moved east with lingering lightrain across coastal Alabama and Florida. In the wake of thesestorms, a rain cooled, stable airmass exists. The question is justhow much airmass recovery can take place. Current thinking is thatthe most unstable airmass will remain offshore, keeping anyadditional severe risk offshore as well. Near term CAMS have consolidated on the next round of storms moving mainly offshore or possibly skirting the coast tonight. This will be something towatch through the evening hours to see if the airmass is able to recover more than expected. Heavy rain remains a possibility, especially near the coast and the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida. High rain chances continue into Tuesday morning as a broad southwest flow continues ahead of an upper level trough. By late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, rain chances will decrease as a drier airmass moves into the area.Low temps tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70salong the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s./13&&.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday night)Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024Axis of upper level storm system/trough axis is progged to be aligned from the Mid MS River Valley southward to the central GulfCoast Tuesday night. There appears to be just enough, albeit weaklift lingering Tuesday night to support only a slight chance of showers/storms over the eastern zones from Greenville AL southward to east of Navarre FL. After midnight, as drier airbegins to filter in from west to east and expand, rain chances end over the land zones. The upper trof pivots eastward Wednesday and with the surface front well east and south of the local areaalong with drier deep layer air in place, rain-free weather is ontap Wednesday/Wednesday night. Low temperatures in the lower/mid 60s interior and lower/mid 70s coast Tuesday night are well above normal. Wednesday night lows, see a lowering trend to a range of 58 to 63 interior to upper halfof the 60s coast. Highs Wednesday range mostly 84 to 88. /10Along the beaches, the rip current risk remains High through midweek. /10&&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024The southern stream remains active going into the medium range. Anevolving upper level storm system over TX sends rounds of shortwave energy eastward through a nearly zonal upper flowpattern over the deep south Thursday and Friday. Increased ascentwill operate on a signal of deep Gulf moisture return resulting in an increase in showers/storms. There are some indications of yet another heavy rain event possibly setting up to close out the week. As far as strong to potentially severe storms, guidance points to Friday. All depends on position of the warm-front late in the week. Model solutions differ on the evolution of the boundary/warm sector and degree of moisture, lift, instability, and shear. Stalled front may linger near-by into the weekend to keep a mention of a small PoP going.Daytime highs through the period mostly well into the 80s.Exception being Friday where overcast conditions and higher coverage of showers/storms keep highs tapered back, 78 to 83.Lows moderate to well into the 60s interior to lower 70s coast. /10&&.MARINE...Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024A moderate to strong south to southwest flow willdevelop tonight and continue into Tuesday. A light westerly flowdevelops on Wednesday and become southerly for the end of the week. /13&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 68 86 65 88 64 86 69 83 / 90 60 10 10 0 20 40 80 Pensacola 71 84 71 86 67 85 73 83 / 90 80 10 10 0 20 40 70 Destin 72 82 73 85 69 84 74 83 / 80 90 20 10 0 20 30 70 Evergreen 66 85 64 86 60 88 66 82 / 80 70 10 0 0 10 50 80 Waynesboro 65 86 61 86 60 86 64 81 / 70 50 10 0 0 20 60 80 Camden 65 84 63 84 59 85 64 79 / 70 50 10 0 0 10 50 80 Crestview 66 84 66 88 60 89 66 84 / 90 80 20 10 0 10 30 70 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ261>266. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204- 206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>632-634-650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
