JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 1:45 AM EDT933
FXUS63 KJKL 070545 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures and humidity will peak today and Wednesday, with
afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees in some locations.
- Uncertainty exists with the possible impacts of Tropical Storm
Debby on eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
Did also back PoPs back to single digits early this morning per
radar and CAMs guidance. These adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 1154 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
On second thought, added 15 to 25 PoPs along and north of I-64 for
the next few hours given current radar trends.
UPDATE Issued at 1143 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
MCS currently tracking south across the Central Ohio Valley into
north-central Kentucky is expected to diminish and dissipate as it
attempts to move into parts of our forecast area north of I-64
over the next few hours. Followed these trends with increases in
hourly Sky and PoP grids through the mid-morning hours Wednesday,
but this still leaves out any wording of showers in the zone
forecasts for now. It should also be noted that the increase in
cloud cover may help mitigate fog for much of the overnight as
well.
UPDATE Issued at 728 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
The forecast is on track heading into the early evening period,
with no substantive changes needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
The latest surface analysis across the CONUS shows much of the
activity confined to the eastern half. Tropical Storm Debby is
continuing to churn very, very, very slowly northeastward and is
currently over the Georgia/South Carolina state line. Cirrus clouds
associated with Debby's outer spirals are slowly drifting across far
southeastern portions of Kentucky. To the north, a surface low is
tracking through the Great Lakes with a warm frontal boundary draped
across the Northeast. A cold front is extending southwest, from the
surface low, back toward the Central Plains and will be the focus of
eastern Kentucky weather in a day or so. Locally, surface high
pressure is present over the area with low-level moisture favoring a
widespread deck of cumulus clouds across the region with
temperatures in upper-80s to low-90s and heat indices approaching
100 degrees.
The remainder of the day will remain dry with partly sunny skies and
temperatures maxing out in the upper-80s to low-90s with heat
indices approaching 100 degrees. Synoptically, the trough
responsible for the low tracking through the Great Lakes will pivot
northeast and drag the surface low closer to CWA overnight with
increasing chances of PoP but single digit PoP percentages exist
through the overnight into Wednesday morning. Overnight tonight,
mostly clear skies and increasing moisture from T.S. Debby will
favor fog development in the river valleys which will burn off
Wednesday morning.
Wednesday brings increasing PoP chances (20-30%) as T.S. Debby skirts
the far eastern portions of the area. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon before the
surface low, tracking through the Great Lakes, pushes Debby out of
the Commonwealth effectively bringing PoP chances to an end across
the CWA as high pressure builds back into the region. With deep
moisture remaining in place, fog development will be likely again
Wednesday night which will burn off early Thursday morning.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by hot and humid conditions
as highs are forecast to climb into the upper-80s to low-90s today
and Wednesday. Increased moisture will allow for heat indices to
climb toward 100 degrees as well. Overnight lows will be in the
upper-60s to low-70s with valley fog. Also, two passing
disturbances, a surface low out of the Great Lakes and T.S. Debby
will bring isolated to scattered chances of showers and storms
before high pressure returns for the end of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 452 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
Our long term period upper level pattern will start with the
remnants of Hurricane Debbie in the vicinity of South Carolina,
the prevailing westerlies aloft to our north, and ridging to our
east and west, leaving us in a col. At the surface, our flow
should be northeasterly, influences by the remnant low to our
southeast. Based on forecast soundings, won't completely rule out
a few showers or thunderstorms popping up over us along the
periphery of the tropical system on Thursday, but most precip
should be further southeast in the deeper moisture. Have limited
our POP to a silent 10%.
One of the biggest questions for the local forecast is the timing
and track of Debbie's remnants, with a fair amount of variation
still existing in models. The highest POP, in likely category,
will be on Friday over extreme eastern KY, while locations west of
the foothills only have a slight chance.
Once the system tracks northeast and is absorbed into a large
upper trough deepening and dropping south into the eastern CONUS,
much drier air will arrive for our area from the north. This
should yield largely clear skies from Saturday into Monday, with
below normal temperatures. The coldest valleys may even see
morning lows dip below 50 by Sunday morning.
The eastern CONUS trough should pull out to the northeast Monday
and Tuesday, leaving west northwest flow aloft here. The GFS shows
MCS remnants arriving under this flow aloft on Monday night or
Tuesday. Do not have any confidence in those forecast details at
that time range. However, will consider it a possibility and not
ignore it altogether, and will carry slight chance POPs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2024
VFR conditions will prevail for the most of the period at all TAF
sites. Increased moisture, courtesy of T.S. Debby, will allow for
valley fog development - persisting through 13Z before
dissipating. However, a decaying MCS from the northwest has also
sent some high clouds over much of the forecast area early this
morning and will likely hinder the spread of the fog to the
terminals. Have gone with a tempo at the more southern and eastern
sites for this but expect any MVFR restrictions to be brief.
While most models initiate isolated showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Kentucky later this afternoon the chances of any of
these hitting a TAF site is relatively low so have kept a mention
out of the TAFs, for now. Light and variable winds will persist
through the period, though gusty and erratic winds can be expected
with any showers or storms later today.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 1:45 AM EDT---------------
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