PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:53 AM EDT617
FXUS61 KPBZ 070453
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1253 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers early this morning will be followed by mostly
dry conditions today. Rain chances return later Thursday through
Friday as Tropical Storm Debby tracks north across the eastern
part of PA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered showers overnight
- Patchy dense fog possible this morning
_____________________________________________________________
Isolated showers expected overnight with a weak shortwave. Fog
development is expected to be fairly widespread after recent
rain, however, do not expect much dense fog with too much
turbulence in the lower levels. MRi values point towards a fair
amount of low stratus rather than dense fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower chances decrease on Wednesday
- Dry for most locations through Thursday night, though low
shower chances continue east of Pittsburgh
__________________________________________________________
Remaining showers and storms will taper from west to east
Wednesday as the shortwave and front depart, but some isolated
activity may linger into the afternoon in the ridges. Much of
the area will then be dry through Thursday night as high
pressure builds to the north of the area.
However, as the remnants of Debby begin to lift north from the
Carolinas, shower chances will remain in the forecast east of
Pittsburgh for Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures should
be closer to seasonable levels through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Unsettled to start, with dry weather later in the period
- Cooler temperatures, especially over the weekend
_____________________________________________________________
Model ensembles still agree overall on the fate of Debby
overall, as it phases with a northern stream shortwave by
Saturday. Rain chances increase Friday with the passage of the
northern wave, but there is still uncertainty on how quickly the
phasing occurs, and that has implications on how far west the
edge of the heavier rain travels. Continued to remain close to
NBM suggestions, but expect changes in the forecast.
Rain chances should diminish Saturday as the initial systems
exit. Another shortwave rotating around an upper low across
eastern Canada should bring low chances for showers north of I
80 on Sunday, with dry weather returning for Monday and Tuesday
under high pressure. Temperatures will fall below normal as the
trough lingers.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Line of showers and storms will move through this evening. This
will bring temporary restrictions of IFR/MVFR to all ports
except ZZV and MGW. Strong wind gusts are also possible with
this line.
Once the rain ends, the next question will be does fog or
stratus develop late tonight or both. Low confidence here as
seeing big differences in model solutions. Will go with a
combination of both fog and stratus at all ports with dense LIFR
fog near the river valleys. Additional light rain showers are
also possible overnight as a frontal boundary will slowly sink
southward.
Expect to see slow improvement back to VFR Wednesday morning
with the exception of FKL and DUJ which should remain MVFR all
day.
.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible again by Friday as moisture streams
north along a crossing cold front. VFR should return Saturday as
high pressure builds in.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...WM/CL
LONG TERM...WM/CL
AVIATION...McMullen
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:53 AM EDT---------------
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