JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 1:30 PM EDT676
FXUS63 KJKL 061730
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
130 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures and humidity will peak today and Wednesday, with
afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees in some locations.
- Uncertainty exists with the possible impacts of Tropical Storm
Debby on eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
Little changes made to the forecast grids as the forecast has
remained largely on track. Just added the latest surface obs and
adjusted those trends through the morning. Also, refreshed morning
text and radio products to remove mentioned of fog. Grids have
been saved and sent.
UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows a broad area of high pressure across
Kentucky well to the north of the sfc circulation of T.S. Debbie.
On satellite, the furthest north of Debbie's high clouds are just
brushing into far southeast Kentucky - seen on satellite over the
fog tendrils following the river valleys there. Meanwhile,
temperatures are showing a small terrain based split of lower 70s
on the ridges and mid 60s in the valleys. Dewpoints remain rather
sticky and are generally in the 65 to 70 degree range, amid light
to calm winds.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through most of the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict 5h ridging over Kentucky - tied to a
larger height dome over the Southern Rockies and High Plains -
weakening in the face of approaching faster mid level flow from
the north and the structure of Debbie to the south. This lowers
heights into tonight for eastern Kentucky and will allow more
energy to approach to our north. Meanwhile, Debbie is meandering
for a period along, and over, the Southeast Coast with the GFS
suite more unstable and lingering over Georgia while the NAM and
ECMWF runs shift it slowly to the northeast through the day
Wednesday. Have favored the latter models' scenario for the
second half of the forecast. Given the fairly small model spread
through tonight have again gone with the NBM as the starting point
for the forecast grids with little adjustment needed aside from
some incorporation of the latest CAMs guidance for PoPs on
Wednesday.
Sensible weather features a very warm and humid couple of days
with a few points likely seeing near 100 degrees heat index
values, for a brief time, each afternoon. Plenty of sunshine will
help with this today, though an arriving low and frontal system
with more convection around on Wednesday will make the heat more
spotty throughout eastern Kentucky - generally favoring the
south. The convection returns for the area by Wednesday afternoon,
though most places will remain dry. For tonight, we will again
see a small ridge to valley temperature split along with more
river valley fog into dawn Wednesday.
The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adding in
PoPs details from the CAMs on Wednesday. Did also make some small
changes to temperatures from the NBM tonight for terrain
distinctions.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 441 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
The flow pattern aloft in the extended will feature general
troughiness centered over both New England and the southeastern
CONUS. The southern trough will be whatever is left over from
Debbie. Debby's remnants will slowly meander northward up the coast,
with the flow aloft in the northeastern US flattening out and
becoming more zonal after a bit. The latest model data indicates
that a faster moving and vigorous shortwave will push across the
northern US border. As this occurs, Debby will be drawn a bit
further inland, and should begin to move toward and be absorbed by
the northern stream trough. This new hybrid system will strengthen
and move into New England over the weekend. This will bring rain and
winds to that region.
As far as eastern Kentucky, if the latest models are accurate, we
may see a few showers and storms in our far eastern counties
Thursday and Thursday night, as Debby drifts a bit westward. This
system may come close enough Friday and Friday night, to allow
scattered showers and storms to erupt across most of our forecast
area. The rain should steadily taper off and move eastward through
the area on Saturday, and be exiting by late Saturday afternoon, as
the northern stream shortwave picks up Debby and moves quickly
through New England. We should then see a period of dry and fairly
pleasant weather across eastern Kentucky to finish out the weekend
and into the upcoming work week, as weak surface ridging edges
eastward into the region. We also should see periods of late night
and early morning valley fog, as most nights will see mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies and light winds.
Temperatures will be quite warm to begin the period, with highs in
the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s are expected, before Debby moves
any closer. By the time the weekend rolls around, we should begin
seeing below normal temperatures, as clouds and precip from Debby
begin affecting eastern Kentucky and winds shift from the east to
the northwest behind the departing trough. Max value in the lower
80s should be more common Saturday through Monday. Nightly lows will
start off the 60s, but should cool into the 50s over the weekend.
The only weather hazard to speak of the extended would be any cloud
to ground lightning strikes that might occur with any thunderstorms,
especially Friday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites and will
prevail through much of the TAF period as high pressure is
situated over the area. A widespread deck of cumulus clouds will
develop over the next few hours with passing cirrus clouds from
T.S. Debby but will remain VFR. Increased moisture, courtesy of
T.S. Debby, will allow for valley fog development after 06Z which
will persist through 13Z before dissipating. Fog could lower
flight categories into IFR/MVFR for a few hours until it burns off
and categorical VFR will return for the remainder of the period.
Light and variable winds will persist through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 1:30 PM EDT---------------
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