Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1808 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch probability: 5%]423
ACUS11 KWNS 032136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032135
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-032330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024
Areas affected...eastern CT...RI...southeast MA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032135Z - 032330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph)
capable of pockets of wind damage are possible through 8pm EDT. The
isolated coverage of the expected wind threat will preclude a severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...A warm/moist boundary layer is evident in late
afternoon surface observations (temperatures in the upper 80s to 90
with mid 70 deg F dewpoints) over southern New England ahead of a
small strong-severe thunderstorm cluster in southwest parts of CT.
This activity will likely move east-northeast over the next few
hours. Short-term model forecast soundings show upwards of 2000+
J/kg MLCAPE with PW around 1.9 inches. A couple of the stronger
thunderstorm cores may yield a localized damaging wind risk into the
evening before this activity weakens.
..Smith.. 08/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...
LAT...LON 41567268 41677258 42067077 41877051 41657055 41507073
41207283 41567268
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1808 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch probability: 5%]----------------
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