LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 2:55 PM EDT968
FXUS63 KLMK 031855
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated storm chances linger today across the Bluegrass and
Lake Cumberland regions.
* Mainly dry weather Sunday through most of next week.
* Afternoon heat index near 100 on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
This afternoon... Scattered showers and isolated storms have
developed over the Bluegrass region. PWATs around 1.6 inches, modest
CAPE, and a departing trough will allow continued scattered
initiation over the eastern half of the region. Given the weakly
sheared environment, not expecting severe weather. Could see some
gusty winds and heavy rain in localized areas.
Tonight and Sunday... Showers and storms will begin to dissipate as
instability lessens with sunset. As the low pressure system and
associated trough continue to swing northeast of the region, precip
chances and cloud coverage will follow. High pressure will build
into the region, leading to calm to light winds overnight. These
conditions, along with recent rain will allow fog to develop in the
early morning hours. Fog could become dense in spots, especially
areas east of I-65. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper
60s and low 70s.
Fog will begin to dissipate within a few hours of sunrise. The
remainder of the day will consist of high pressure, light winds,
scattered skies, and temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
Moving from an extended wet pattern to a dry one is the noteable
change for this forecast. The first half of the week's forecast has
fairly high confidence. Our area will be in between some better
moisture in the north and the effects of the tropical system well to
the south. Dry air sandwiched between as well as ridging aloft will
mean a quick warm up for temperatures. The wet pattern we were in
should keep us from reaching the mid to upper 90's advertised by the
MEX guidance, but peak values around our metro areas in the mid 90's
is a better bet for Mon/Tue afternoon.
Tue late afternoon and evening, as a weak cold front approaches,
would be the "best" chances for rain at least through midweek. That
said though, it looks like the front will come through late Tuesday
night, and soundings show enough of a lower inversion/cap to prevent
storms development. Thus will continue to keep the silent pops in
the forecast.
For Wed-Sat, a lot will depend on how far the tropical system gets
into the SE US. Majority of the deterministic/ensemble guidance
keeps rain chances very low, so we'll lean that way too for now.
Northerly flow behind the Tue night cold frontal passage and ahead
of that tropical system should keep temperatures at or below normal
for early August.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
Intermittent MVFR CIGs are still overhead as the low pressure system
slowly moves off to the northeast of the region. These CIGs will
continue to thin and lift through the afternoon. As we are
destabilizing, scattered showers and isolated storms will form over
the bluegrass, leading to some VCSH at RGA and LEX.
As the sun sets, showers will dissipate, skies will clear, and winds
will become calm to light. A good recipe for fog development in the
early morning hours. Have fog development mentioned at all
terminals, with Bluegrass terminals seeing thicker fog.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 2:55 PM EDT---------------
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