LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 11:38 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...526
FXUS64 KLIX 030438 AAC
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1138 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024
Tonight through Saturday will continue to be HOT with isolated to
scattered showers expected. These showers and storms will be
mostly in the afternoon/early evening hours, with the main
concerns being lightning and locally heavy rainfall/ponding.
These storms will likely be late enough to unfortunately still
allow the heat to persist tomorrow. Plus, overall trends the last
few days have been drier than the models, so I would not be
surprised to see tomorrow turn out a little drier than forecast,
which would also allow the heat to linger without as much relief.
The highs tomorrow will be in the upper 90s and approaching 100
degrees in some areas. The heat index values are forecast to be
between 108 and 112 degrees. As a result, a heat advisory has been
issued for tomorrow from 10AM to 7PM CT. Be sure to drink plenty
of water and stay hydrated! MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024
Medium and short range guidance seems to hint at a potential front
coming across the SE CONUS late this weekend on Sunday in
association with a trough over the Ohio Valley region. This trough
will have a large part in steering now PTC 4 well east of us and
into the Big Bend of Florida. So, due to that, we do not expect
direct local impacts from this storm. However, the main caveat is
that since there is not a well-defined center, models will struggle
with it until it does, so it's best to keep track of the latest
updates. Going back to the front, if that front makes it down here,
it will only knock down the dew point, not the temps. Actually, the
lower dew points would promote more mixing and possibly higher
actual temps. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty of where
this boundary stalls at. Where the front stalls at will be a focus
of rainfall although mid-level dry air around 500mb will try to
offset that rainfall on Sunday.
After Sunday, medium-range guidance suggests that the ridging over
the four corners region will expand across the southern plains and
lower MS River valley. Large-scale subsidence and drying in the 700-
500mb layer will look to prevent convective development throughout
the week. If we remain mostly free of convection, the heat will be
allowed to take off to near record temperatures across the area. The
less rain we get, the easier it'll be for the surface to efficiently
mix out and heat up. However, if we are able to get more convective
development during the week, the heat will not be as bad. However,
current indications is that near record heat is possible towards the
middle of the week as the subsidence and dry air in the 700-500mb
layer work to keep us mostly dry throughout the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024
VFR conditions through the cycle anticipated. Again a rogue shower
or storm will be possible this afternoon or early evening,
however, coverage will be limited. A short fused TEMPO is NOT out
of the question this afternoon for convection, but again this will
be the exception rather than the rule. Winds will remain mostly
light and variable. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024
Benign conditions overall for the marine waters through Sunday
with southerly and moderate (10-15kts) prevailing. Winds turn more
northerly Sunday onward as a frontal system moves southward. Some
isolated higher winds and seas will be possible Sunday and Monday as
a result. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four has formed in the
Caribbean Sea and is expected to move toward Florida. Mariners
should, as always, monitor for changes and keep up with the latest
forecasts. MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 97 76 95 74 / 10 20 30 20
BTR 100 81 99 77 / 10 10 50 30
ASD 100 80 97 76 / 10 10 50 40
MSY 97 81 96 79 / 10 10 50 50
GPT 97 81 96 77 / 10 10 50 40
PQL 101 80 100 76 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 11:38 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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