Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #779 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE109
AWUS01 KWNH 021550
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OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-022149-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0779
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1150 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024
Areas affected...southeastern Michigan through western Ohio
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 021549Z - 022149Z
Summary...Slow-moving downpours will gradually increase in
coverage, resulting in several spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
through 22Z today. Flash flooding is possible - especially in
urban/low-lying areas.
Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts deepening
convection across far southeastern Ontario just east of the
Detroit Metro area. These cores were rather slow-moving due to
weak wind fields aloft, but were being supported by 1) forcing
ahead of a mid-level wave over Indiana, 2)
insolation/destabilization resulting in ~2000 J/kg SBCAPE in the
pre-convective environment, and 3) weak confluence near a surface
low over southern Michigan and a weak front extending through the
area. Additional, yet more isolated areas of deepening convection
were being depicted via satellite imagery across southern
Michigan, Indiana, and far northwestern Ohio. Models and
observations both suggest that convection will become more
widespread with destabilization and cooling aloft/ascent
overspreading the region through peak heating hours. Slow storm
movement and 1.5-1.8 inch PW values should result in areas of
efficient rainfall rates (exceeding 1 inch/hr at times).
As convective coverage continues to expand, the rainfall will
occur across areas of sensitive ground conditions in/near urban
areas and across portions of Ohio that have experienced 1-4 inch
rainfall totals (estimated per MRMS) near/north of I-70 in
Indiana/Ohio. FFG thresholds are the lowest in these areas
(around 1-1.5 inch/hr), and could be easily exceeded as cells
materialize across that area this afternoon. Another area of
concern is near Detroit, where similar FFG thresholds exist amid
urbanized ground surfaces. Slightly higher FFGs exist across
northwestern Ohio, which may mitigate a larger-scale flash flood
threat this afternoon.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 43108246 41948242 41398224 40698183 39948217
39608324 39708486 41048564 42828499 43098338
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #779 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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