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554 FXUS64 KMOB 282039AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL339 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024The upper ridge over the region weakens slightly tonight as a shortwave trough moving east across the Great Lakes region brings increased upper level troughing to much of the eastern CONUS. The northern periphery of the upper ridging over the Gulf will remain across the immediate coastal areas through tonight, with upper ridging then building north to the west of our forecast area on Monday as the upper troughing deepens somewhat along the US East Coast. With this, a deep mid layer northwesterly flow will develop over the area on Monday, with guidance indicating potential for a couple of weak shortwaves to drop southeast across our area during the day. At the surface, a very weak trough continues to linger across the immediate Gulf coast region. With the potential shortwave activity aloft, the continuing surface boundary, and PWAT's remaining in the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range, look for a slight increase in coverage of showers and storms again on Monday (after a slightly lower coverage than past few days today). Best chances for showers and storms on Monday will be over the eastern half of our forecast area due to influences of slightly increased upper riding over the west. We do expect the diurnal nature of convective to persist through Monday, with showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast late tonight and then becoming more numerous and developing inland during the day on Monday. A few of the stronger storms will have the potential of creating gusty surface winds up to the 35 to 40 mph range. However the main concern will continue to be the risk of locally heavy rainfall and potential resultant minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage and and urban areas as the showers and storms should be very efficient rain producers. Low temperatures tonight will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal, and range from 73 to 76 degrees inland areas, and from 77 to 81 degrees along the coast. Highs on Monday will be quite warm, at least in the lower 90s across all of the area, and possibly mid 90s over western portions of the forecast area. We have issued a Heat Advisory over western portions of the forecast area for Monday, mainly all of our interior southeast MS counties and western-most tier of southwest AL counties (Choctaw, Washington and Mobile), as heat indices could reach up around 109 degrees in some locations in the Advised area. DS/12 &&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024One more rather active day is anticipated for Tuesday as upper ridging builds over the Southern Plains and a weak upper trough lingers over the eastern US. Weak shortwaves, embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft, look to continue moving into the Southeast US during this time. These shortwaves, along with deep moisture remaining in place, will help to support high rain chances (60-80 percent) over the eastern half of the region. Rain chances decrease (40-50 percent) the further west you go due to the closer proximity of the upper ridge. Convection will generallyfollow a diurnal pattern, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing offshore and over coastal counties during the morning, spreading inland during the afternoon via sea breeze and outflow boundaries. With a lack of shear, severe weather is not expected, although, as is the case with pulse-type convection, a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding, is also a concern, especially over urban/poor drainage areas. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 90s. A few locations over our western zones may approach Heat Advisory thresholds (heatindices exceeding 108 degrees) on Tuesday given their closer proximity to the upper ridge.For Wednesday and through much of the extended period, upper ridging looks to expand eastward, encompassing much of the CONUS. Increasing subsidence from the ridge aloft should help to reduce PoPs back to our typical summertime, scattered afternoon coverage (generally around 30-50 percent) for the entire area. With lower rain chances and increasing subsidence, highs are expected to rise into the mid to upper 90s. Heat Advisory products will likely become necessary for much of the local area for heat indices of 108-112 degrees. Higher rain chances and slightly lower temperatures may return for Sunday as the ridge breaks down and a weakening frontal boundary attempts to approach our area from the north. /96&&.MARINE...Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024Flow will be somewhat variable, but mainly a light southwesterly flow during the afternoons and evenings each day throughout the week, shifting westerly to northwesterly late night into the morning hours. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms can be expected each day over the marine area, especially during the morning hours. Conditions will favorable for the development of waterspouts through most of the week as well. DS/12&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 76 93 76 93 75 94 76 94 / 10 50 20 50 20 50 10 50 Pensacola 78 91 78 92 77 92 78 92 / 20 80 20 50 20 50 10 40 Destin 80 90 79 90 79 92 79 92 / 20 60 20 60 20 40 10 30 Evergreen 74 93 74 93 75 95 74 95 / 50 70 20 60 10 50 10 40 Waynesboro 74 94 74 95 75 97 75 97 / 20 50 10 40 10 30 0 30 Camden 74 91 74 93 75 95 75 95 / 40 70 20 60 10 40 10 30 Crestview 74 93 74 93 74 95 74 95 / 20 80 20 80 20 50 10 50 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ051-052-261- 263-265.FL...None.MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
