LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 12:45 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...366
FXUS64 KLIX 241745
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024
Deep tropical moisture continues to stream northward from the
southern gulf. This will set up over the coastal bend of TX into the
LCH area again and farther NE from there. Once this area gets going
this morning, it will eventually release outflow boundaries which
will be capable of developing new activity to the east of this main
sh/ts complex. As we get into the warmest part of the day, it should
help sh/ts develop quite easily as the environment is still unstable
and shouldn't take much to develop storms. The main areas that see
the most rainfall should be from the TX coastal bend into LCH to
near JAN then arcing back SE to near Pensacola and well into the
gulf. We will be under this arc for most of the day. But most areas
will still get some rain today, it just may be later in the day for
areas around New Orleans and coastal Mississippi. We should see
rainfall develop and move NE over the western portions of the area
early today, so most of these areas could see some heavy rainfall
this morning before weakening to just showers. This will also keep
temps lower in these areas. Looking at the temps structure, one can
easily see where we expect the most activity through most of the
day. PW values remain high and north of 2.0" today and Thursday so
no surprise, precip numbers will also remain high. Some areas are
becoming saturated and additional rainfall could cause some flooding
issues for these locations, but this is not expected to be
widespread at the moment. Heavy rainfall and very slight chances of
severe will remain along with water/land spout possibilities.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024
Not a lot of change still expected through the extended. The main
area of deep moisture will continue to be located over the western
and NW gulf coast while our precip chances will remain high, we are
not looking at the amounts that areas to the west will be looking
at. There is some indications of this monsoon-like plume will begin
to weaken by mid to late next week and we start getting a more
easterlies regime started. This would be caused by the Bermuda High
ridging well into the gulf by that time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024
All terminals currently VFR, but all have equal high chances of
getting IFR in TSRA beginning mid-afternoon. During the evening,
VFR conditions should return with only one or two having
SHRA/TSRA restrictions overnight as most sh/ts activity decays.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024
Outside any storms, which will be plentiful near the Atchafalaya
River, winds and seas should be on the low side as winds should
remain 10kt or less. These basic conditions should repeat through
this week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 85 70 90 / 40 70 20 50
BTR 75 89 75 93 / 40 80 20 60
ASD 73 90 74 91 / 40 70 20 60
MSY 77 89 78 90 / 50 80 20 60
GPT 74 89 75 90 / 40 60 20 50
PQL 73 93 74 93 / 50 60 30 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 12:45 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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