PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 1:46 AM CDT118
FXUS63 KPAH 310646
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
146 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe storm risk continues today-tomorrow. Damaging
winds and flash flooding rains are the primary potential
hazards.
- Dangerously hot and humid conditions continues today-tomorrow
with excessive heat headlines both days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024
A similar play out to storms will occur Today-Tonight, with a SLGT
risk of severe in our far northeast. Parameters are similar, MUCAPEs
2500-3500 J/KG with impressive lapse rates to 8C and 25-30 kts of
deep layer shear to work with. Expect afternoon development chance
to morph into evening/early night chance as upstream MCS dives
southeastward in the nwly steering flow aloft. Sound familiar? The
axis of greatest threat IS shifted slightly northeast and thus our
overall pop is lower, as we cap up to 14C from the southwest. And
helicity struggles upward into the lower 100s m2/s2, versus double
or better that the last 2 events...so there are some nuanced
differences. Still, with mid-upper 90s temps and mid-upper 70s dew
points, we'll have a super-charged environment for storms to work
with, should they get going.
Thursday-Thursday night might be another similar chance and it looks
like a better chance at that. Models are more robust with this
chance, but the track of severe/MCS is to our northeast so the SLGT
risk is just outside our area. That said, the MRGNL risk covers the
entirety of the FA, and the environment will again become
supercharged with another repeat day of highs/dew points.
For both time periods, damaging winds will be the primary severe
hazard with accelerated/bowing portions of any storm clusters/linear
development. Heavy rain/training will likewise continue to offer a
flash flooding potential hazard.
Heat headlines for the entire area will now run thru Thursday as the
Warning area up to 115 and the Advisory area up toward 110 looks
like a good bet.
The long wave trof that makes a week ending Ohio Valley passage will
offer continued good chance pops even as the highest severe threat
shifts eastward with the trof's axis. More clouds/pops and its
passage means temperatures back off these mid week extremes, though
they still look to run near or slightly above seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024
Convective chances peak in the afternoon and evening and offer
the highest probability for restricted flight categories to be
incurred, outside of patchy pre dawn fog potential. Otherwise
anticipate a generally VFR forecast for flight planning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ075>078-083.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ILZ080>082-
084>094.
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Thursday for INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ012-013-016>022.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KYZ001>011-
014-015.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 1:46 AM CDT---------------
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