LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 3:47 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...999
FXUS64 KLIX 222047
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Summer afternoon thunderstorms are gradually propagating northward
into the Florida Parishes and southern MS. These storms will be
capable of heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds
in excess of 30-50 mph. PWATs are 2 to 2.2" with sufficient Downdraft
CAPE of ~700-800 j/kg which will allow some of the taller storms
to pack a punch with higher rain rates of 3-4" in localized areas
the next few hours. After sunset, showers and storms will wane per
usual for this time of year and then we await overnight
development offshore.
The primary features dictating PoPs and subsequently temperatures
in the short term remain the lingering mid-level troughing held up
over the central CONUS which is aiding lift and surface
convergence along the northern Gulf Coast. This will be further
enhanced by the approach of a weak inverted surface trough by
Tuesday night. While Tuesday morning convective coverage should
start out pretty comparable to today, these factors should result
in more widespread coverage breaking out through the afternoon and
moving northward. These showers and storms may persist longer into
the evening as well due to the support of surface convergence
from the surface trough.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Uncertainty of PoPs begins on Wednesday as NBM guidance insists on
definite chances for showers and storms especially for along and
north of I-10/12. However, thermodynamics could be less favorable
for sustained convection if the prior day's storms and overnight
convection overturn the low-levels. Have hedged toward at least
dropping PoPs below NBM guidance for areas along the coast and
offshore where surface high pressure will be more overhead.
A weak surface high begins to move overhead on Thursday into
Friday allowing a bit more of suppression to daily afternoon
thunderstorms potential, and by the weekend we could see a bit
more mid-level ridging move in to further suppress convective
coverage. Temperatures during this time will gradually trend back
closer to average as more sunshine allows areas to warm during the
day. Heat indices will begin to creep up toward low 100s in some
areas during the weekend, but should remain below heat advisory
criteria.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Visible satellite showing scattered agitated cu developing across
southeast LA and southern MS at this hour. VCTS lines will
prevail through the afternoon hours at all terminals with
reduction in VIS/CIG most likely between 1800-2200 UTC. Should see
VCSH/TS wane over the area after 00 UTC with predominantly VFR
and light winds thereafter overnight. Same thing, different day
tomorrow it appears.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Fairly benign marine conditions with winds and seas on the low
side as southerly winds should remain 10kt or less. Locally
higher winds and seas will be possible with thunderstorms each
day, especially in the morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 86 71 81 / 40 80 70 90
BTR 75 88 75 86 / 40 80 70 100
ASD 75 89 74 87 / 50 80 70 90
MSY 77 88 77 87 / 30 80 70 100
GPT 76 89 76 86 / 40 70 70 90
PQL 75 93 75 89 / 50 60 60 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 3:47 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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