ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 8:56 PM EDT096
FXUS61 KILN 250056
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
856 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly move through the region through
the day on Thursday. High pressure and dry conditions are
expected for Thursday night through Saturday. An unsettled
weather pattern will be in place for Sunday into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold frontal boundary is oriented from the southwest to the
northeast across our CWA. Storm/shower coverage has notably
diminished with the loss of diurnal heating and the expectation
is that this trend will continue. Given afternoon rain,
temperatures have trended a bit lower and, therefore, have
adjusted the grids accordingly.
Winds continue to decrease and are calm or nearly calm
throughout much of the CWA. This, combined with recent rainfall,
would behoove a patchy fog threat where moisture is highest
(particularly in rural areas where evapotranspiration processes
dominate). For now, did not include fog in the grids, as it will
likely be patchy and light in nature but chose to include it in
aviation products.
Previous discussion-->
A boundary will continue to sag through
the area through the near term. A few strong to severe storms
will continue to be possible into the evening hours. There will
be some activity that continues into the overnight hours. Where
there are some breaks in the activity and cloud cover, cannot
rule out some fog. Confidence in a specific area was not high
enough to add to the forecast at this time. Low temperatures
overnight will drop down into the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday close to the frontal boundary. The greatest coverage is
expected to be near and south of the Ohio River. Any
precipitation will taper off by evening as the front continues
to push out of the region. High pressure and dry conditions
will then work into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northwest mid and upper level flow develops at the end of the week
with surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes Friday
and Saturday offering dry weather conditions.
Mid level ridge axis builds into the region later Saturday and then
quickly shifts off to the east Sunday into early next week. The
surface high will also shift to the east, leading to a broad
low level southerly flow early next week.
Moisture and instability increase Sunday as a mid level disturbance
rides up the back side of the ridge which will result in a chance of
showers and thunderstorms returning Sunday.
Mid level shortwave lifts thru the Great Lakes on Monday which looks
to be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms in the next
week.
A second shortwave tracks east thru the Great Lakes Tuesday offering
a continued threat for showers/thunderstorms. This threat continues
into Wednesday. Model solution differences continue to be observed
regarding the strength of the troughs that come thru the area early
next week. Have confidence that Monday into Tuesday will be an
unsettled period but exact details are uncertain at this time frame.
Highs on Friday will be 80 to 85 or slightly below normal. A warming
trend will ensue with highs in the middle to upper 80s Saturday and
Sunday, and Monday, and then in the upper 80s to around 90 on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Friday
night will rise thru the period with upper 60s to around 70 expected
Monday night and Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold frontal boundary continues to move through the region
and is forecast to stall out during the overnight hours. As we
lose daytime heating, anticipate that the shower/thunderstorm
activity will decrease during the overnight hours. Winds
decrease and become light and somewhat variable, given the
stalled boundary stretching through the region.
There seems to be a signal for patchy fog formation,
particularly at our southernmost TAF sites, however, given
recent rainfall and evapotranspiration processes at some of our
more northern TAF sites, have included brief VSBY reductions
during the early morning hours Thursday at all sites, although
confidence here is medium.
Thursday, the boundary continues to sag southward and
showers and thunderstorms should fire up again during the
afternoon hours as daytime heating increases. Anticipating the
more robust coverage to be south of I-70; storms will be
scattered in nature.
Precipitation decreases as we head into the late afternoon/
evening hours and will be replaced with some cold air advection
cumulus. Winds shift to out of the north/ northeast.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM... /CA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 8:56 PM EDT---------------
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