LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 9:13 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...872
FXUS64 KLIX 220213
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
913 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
While most of the convection from the afternoon has dissipated, we
have seen a solitary thunderstorm redevelop near the Interstate
10/12 corridor in southern East Baton Rouge Parish over the last
hour. It's tracking eastward and could reach the Hammond area
beyond 10 PM CDT if it doesn't dissipate. Will likely issue a ZFP
update in the next hour to remove evening wording. No significant
change to forecast thinking beyond midnight, as we continue to see
the same scenarios repeat daily/nightly. Not really seeing an
obvious end to the current cycle at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Plenty of showers and thunderstorms are in the area today as PW
values north of 2 inches holds over the area. Although most of
the south shore and coast are fairly worked over, we still see a
fair amount in a few spots. Meanwhile, further north, more storms
are starting to break through as we get to peak heating of the
day. With plenty of CAPE to go around, a few of these storms could
be strong and can't 100% rule out a rogue severe storm. However
poor wind shear means they aren't moving very much which adds to
the flash flooding threat. These storms are incredibly efficient
rainmakers and due to repeated rounds of rain both today and in
previous days, soils won't be able to hold as much as they have
been while we were drier. There's also plenty of boundaries either
from lake/sea breeze or outflow boundaries from decaying storms
for new ones to pop up on. So all in all there will be high PoPs
for this afternoon.
For tomorrow, a shortwave will dig down into the area in the late
hours so we may have more nocturnal showers and storms through the
evening/overnight hours but otherwise it'll be a similar tune to
how today is playing out. -BL
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Diurnally driven pattern continues for the foreseeable future.
Still. Onshore flow continues to bring in moist air from the Gulf
and we have plenty of daily seabreezes and shortwaves to help kick
storms off. Flash flooding continues to be a concern since
antecedent conditions will continue to be wet and reduce how much
the soils can store leading to faster runoff. It'll still be a
very hit and miss situation depending on where storms exactly end
up, so it should remain relatively isolated.
Very late into the period (right at Saturday) high pressure begins
to build into the area again which may slightly tap down on the
rain chances we've been having so much of lately and bring
slightly higher temperatures. But the typical summer pattern will
continue with daily chances of convection in the afternoon. -BL
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Convection in the vicinity of forecast terminals has for the most
part dissipated. Redevelopment during the evening hours cannot be
entirely ruled out, but will not carry any mention of TSRA this
evening for now. Terminals are currently VFR, but there will
likely be a few periods of MVFR ceilings. Those will become more
widespread, along with a threat of SHRA/TSRA toward sunrise
Monday. Will carry convective mention from mid-morning onward on
Monday, but will not attempt to time a period of direct impacts
(IFR visibilities, primarily) with this package. MVFR ceilings
will be possible for a good chunk of the daytime hours Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Winds will generally be onshore flow at 10 knots or less for the
whole forecast period. In and near storms could see locally higher
waves/seas and winds. Storms are most likely in the morning hours
and could contain waterspouts in the stronger ones. This will
continue throughout the whole week basically. -BL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 87 71 86 / 40 80 50 90
BTR 75 90 75 90 / 40 90 40 90
ASD 74 89 75 89 / 60 80 50 90
MSY 76 88 77 88 / 60 80 40 90
GPT 75 88 76 89 / 50 90 50 90
PQL 75 91 75 92 / 60 80 50 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...BL
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 9:13 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
