LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 1:05 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...863
FXUS63 KLMK 260505
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
105 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
this evening.
* Precipitation chances increase slightly on Saturday and increase
still further Sunday into mid week.
* By Tuesday and Wednesday heat index readings will be reaching
100 degrees in parts of the area, especially along and west of
Interstate 65.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
The forecast is mostly on track this evening, although a couple of
things worth noting. First, a loose cluster of isolated showers (and
a few rumbles of thunder) is hanging on across west central KY.
These are hanging on a bit longer than expected, and will continue
to slowly sink southward into the late evening. Overall, intensity
will peak and diminish, with new isolated convection continuing to
fire on the weak cold pool. SPC mesoanalysis is showing around 5
g/kg of surface moisture convergence as this weak convection sinks
southward into the the better Theta-e airmass. As a result, think
maintenance will continue into the late evening until either the
cold pool becomes too weak and/or convergence weakens. Until then,
will keep some 20 pops sinking into our SW CWA.
The other issue for the overnight would be with any fog development.
Some data suggest fog, although a couple of factors working against
it. 1.) Fairly thick upper sky cover is currently in place across
much of the CWA and looks to continue. 2.) Some steady dry air
advection from the north will lower dew points. The highest dew
points will remain across southern KY toward dawn, however this is
likely were upper sky cover will be most pronounced. Given those
expectations, not hitting fog very hard outside of some patchy
mention across southern KY. Will monitor through the overnight for
any changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
The pattern that has been in place for the last several day is
beginning to change. The upper ridge that was over the western US in
is on the move to the east, pushing the upper trough over the
eastern US towards the Atlantic Coast. This is causing upper flow to
push surface high pressure, over the western Great Lakes, south
towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Light north winds will veer slightly
to the northeast. We won't see much in the way of cold air
advection, but drier air is moving in to the region. Precipitable
water values have fallen to around 1.5" over the CWA, so not
expected as much of the isolated flooding threat as the past few
days.
Tonight, winds will go near calm again with the setting sun. Any
remaining precipitation will fade into the night as upper level
clouds continue to stream by from the southwest towards the
northeast. Overall, relative humidity values are expected to be
lower across the region with lows falling into the mid 60s to low
70s and the dew point depression being 2 to 5 degrees lower. RH
values will remain a little higher, near 100 percent in parts of
southern Kentucky, but cloud cover will also limit fog development
from radiative cooling. Some patchy light fog will be possible in
this area, but overall expecting less fog than the last few days.
Tomorrow, should see further improvements compared to today with
skies clearing farther southward, providing more sunshine for more
areas. High temperatures will climb into the mid 80s. Drier air will
continue to suppress overall moisture and reduce rain chances,
making for a dry day for most. The only real chance for a shower or
thunderstorm appears to be across far southern Kentucky.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
Transition day on Saturday as sfc ridging over the Great Lakes
retreats toward New England, while an amplifying upper ridge reaches
the I-75 corridor. The ENE flow will keep humidity levels manageable
with dewpoints in the lower/mid 60s across the Bluegrass region and
most of southern Indiana, but as you get into south-central Kentucky
and more on the periphery of the high, dewpoints will recover to
around 70 in the afternoon. Regardless, everyone will know it's
summer with highs near 90. With the increasing moisture feed,
isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across
south central Kentucky in the afternoon, and while we can't rule out
locally gusty winds with the stronger storms, severe weather is
still unlikely.
Increasingly muggy and unsettled weather is expected Sunday into
Monday as a baggy upper trof lifts NE from the Red River Valley and
eventually gets kicked east across the Ohio Valley. Main threat is
locally heavy rain given weak wind fields and PWATs near 2 inches.
Precip chances drop off Tue through late week, but heat and humidity
will take the spotlight. Current max temp forecasts in the lower 90s
may prove conservative for any day that we aren't limited by MCS
debris, but high dewpoints will push heat index values close to 100
each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Late evening convection has diminished across the region. Winds
remain calm across the region early this morning, but we have a
pretty decent amount of mid-high level cloudiness across the area.
Probably will see some early morning fog again at BWG/HWB from
roughly 26/08-12Z. Outlook for later today calls for VFR conditions
with light northeasterly winds. A continued deck of high cloudiness
and some light smoke from western Canada fires may contribute some
haze in the region as well, but should not impact surface
visibilities.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM....RAS
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 1:05 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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