CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 18, 7:02 AM EDT827
FXUS61 KCLE 181102
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
702 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in for the end of the week, lingering into
the weekend with primarily dry weather in control. Cooler
through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 AM Update...
No major changes. Expecting some increases in the northerly wind
speeds later in the afternoon hours. Minor temperature edits for
the afternoon highs today.
Previous Discussion...
Post cold frontal environment for the area as cool high pressure
builds in for the end of the week. Dewpoints are already showing
drops into northwest OH at this hour where TOL/FDY are in the
lower 50s. Low level/surface northwest flow could generate some
low level cloud cover off Lake Erie for far NE OH and NW PA
today while most other locations are mainly clear. There could
also be some cloud cover from the trailing 500mb axis coming
through around 18-20Z today. Have to mention in here that an
isolated shower is possible, but not going to add it to the
grids. Temps in the 70s through Friday. Lower 50s away from the
lakeshore Thursday night with near 60F along the lakeshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level confluence behind a departing longwave trough over
eastern Canada and New England and resulting surface high pressure
will be in control of our weather this weekend. Southwesterly flow
aloft will begin developing ahead of a digging trough over the
Plains, but aside from some passing higher clouds is not expected to
do much to break up what looks like a stellar weather weekend. Highs
should return to the low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Many away
from the Lake Erie shoreline will dip well into the 50s Friday
night, and could still see a few upper 40s in outlying portions of
northeast OH/northwest PA assuming any passing high clouds aren't
too thick. Lows trend a bit warmer Saturday night but still range
from mid 50s in parts of northeast OH/northwest PA to the low 60s
elsewhere. Lows tick up a bit more into the 60s for Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trough will dig into the central U.S. through Tuesday and begin
lifting east-northeast towards the lower Ohio Valley and western
Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, weak low pressure is
expected to begin slowly lifting out of the lower Mississippi Valley
Monday, passing through the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday and
approaching the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. A warm front is
expected to lift across the local area Tuesday night into Wednesday
east of this weak low pressure. More substantial moisture return
will begin Monday into Tuesday amid deep-layer southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough to our west.
We can't rule out a stray airmass shower or storm on Monday towards
northwest or central OH if moisture return is quick enough, though
for most of the area carry a dry forecast for Monday. Daytime
heating of an increasingly moist airmass should combine with modest
forcing for ascent ahead of the trough and a bit of warm air
advection and isentropic lift ahead of the warm front to yield
scattered shower and storm chances on Tuesday, reflected by 30-40%
POPs. Greater rain potential is evident Wednesday into Thursday as
the trough drifts towards and into the southern Great Lakes/upper
Ohio Valley. Given pretty good ensemble agreement on the overall set-
up went with the likely POPs (60%) given by blended guidance for
Wednesday. Not too concerned about a robust severe weather threat on
Tuesday or Wednesday given what appear to be poor mid-level lapse
rates limiting the amount of instability along with weak flow aloft
limiting the amount of shear. Increasing atmospheric moisture and
weak flow may encourage slow-moving downpours, though for most of
the area any rain we can get will be more much beneficial than
harmful. Highs in the 80s and lows gradually warming through the 60s
with some humidity are expected the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Quiet aviation with mainly VFR expected. Two changes from the
previous forecast are adding some gusts this afternoon 14-18kts
in northerly winds, and also threw in SCT030 with a weak push of
low level moisture off Lake Erie later in the forecast from this
cooler airmass, but think it will stay SCT and now go into a
ceiling of BKN030. This would occur after 00Z Friday.
Outlook...VFR expected Thursday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Getting a brief push of northerly winds to around or slightly
greater than 15 knots as a trough axis drops south across the lake
early this morning. We should see winds back off to more of an 8 to
13 knot range by later this morning before another trough drops
through late this afternoon into this evening. This will bring winds
up to around 15 knots out of the north-northeast again for a few
hours, especially over the central basin. Winds will slacken tonight
into Friday as high pressure builds in and become generally light
and variable this weekend into early next week. The modest north-
northeast flow will bring 1-3 footers in the nearshore waters
through most of tonight. The brief periods of enhanced flow both
this morning and again this evening will briefly push waves between
the Islands and Conneaut, OH to the 2-4 foot range. The forecast
remains a bit below Small Craft Advisory criteria so continue to
hold off on any headlines, but it won't be pleasant for recreational
small craft on the lake through this evening. On land the forecast
waves are also a bit shy of prompting a high risk of rip currents,
but the risk will likely get into the "moderate" category at times
this morning through this evening between Erie County and Lake County
in OH, so will add that mention to the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Thunderstorms are not expected over the lake for the next several
days, with the next potential towards Tuesday of next week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 18, 7:02 AM EDT---------------
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