MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 11:23 AM CST ...New AVIATION...126
FXUS64 KMOB 101723
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1123 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
- A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday,
bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen
behind the front along with building seas.
- A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and
Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Another quiet morning overall. GOES-16 night products and
proximity model soundings indicate a rather thick (multi-layer)
deck of mid to upper-level clouds in place ranging from 650mb to
300mb, which obs and trends actually shows a steady warming trend
due to insolation. Patchy clouds will continue as we roll past
daybreak into the morning and afternoon hours as the same
broad/weak shortwave over Texas continues to pump mid to upper
tropospheric moisture across Mexico across the coastal SE US. Only
continued adjustment was to knock down dewpoints in the afternoon
following PBL mixing nearing the NBM10th percentile. Otherwise, a
nice day ahead again! KLG
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
A weakening upper low over Texas breaks down to an open wave then
is absorbed into a rather large upper trof that evolves over the
eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. This latter
feature will bring a strong cold front through the forecast area
mainly from Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A gradual
warming trend continues ahead of the approaching front along with
improving deep layer moisture, sufficient to allow for isolated to
scattered convection to develop over the southern portion of the
area on Wednesday. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well
inland to near 50 at the coast then trend by Wednesday night to
range from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs on
Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. The cold
front ushers in much cooler and drier air, with lows by Friday
night ranging from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at
the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be similar. This
continues to look to have the potential to bring the first light
freeze of the season to the northern portion of the area Friday
night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84.
NBM probabilities for dropping below 32F are about 20-60% in this
portion Friday night and 20-70% Saturday night, with the highest
potential generally over northern Choctaw and northern Wilcox
counties. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s,
then highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Temperatures begin to moderate on Sunday, with highs in the lower
to mid 60s along with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid/upper
30s well inland to around 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip
currents is expected through Wednesday with a moderate risk for
Thursday. A low risk follows for Friday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
VFR conditions along with light winds are expected this afternoon
into tonight. An upper system passing over the northern Gulf
coast later tonight though Saturday will bring rain showers to
the southern half of the forecast area starting around sunrise
over southwestern portions of the forecast to just after noontime
over the southeastern portions of the forecast area. Winds in the
morning are expected to be northwesterly 5 to 10 knots.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
High pressure over the area will continue to promote light winds and
calm waves/seas through Wednesday. Winds increase out of the west
late Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of an approaching strong
cold front, expected to pass the area Thursday morning. This will
lead to an increase in offshore moderate to strong flow Thursday and
Friday. Expect small craft advisory conditions in this time frame
with winds 20-25kts and gusts to 30kts. Waves/seas respond reaching
1-2ft for protected waters, 2-3ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 3-5
ft for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next
weekend. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 78 55 75 58 / 0 10 30 0
Pensacola 75 59 74 61 / 0 0 20 0
Destin 75 60 73 63 / 10 0 20 0
Evergreen 77 50 72 53 / 0 10 20 0
Waynesboro 78 50 77 53 / 0 0 10 0
Camden 75 48 72 54 / 0 0 10 0
Crestview 78 50 73 54 / 0 0 30 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 11:23 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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