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360 FXUS64 KLIX 061757AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1157 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with the passage of a stronger cold front.- Drier air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate the fire weather risk Sunday through Tuesday. Those under burn bans should avoid burning.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026More of the same today with just high cirrus to note in our skies.The stationary front parked offshore will be reinforced by asecondary cold front that will push through tonight into Saturdaymorning which will increase northerly winds and invite deeper-layer dry air into the area. The colder air mass will lag behindthe front as the front will be starting to lose its coherence, butthe front's presence will be most obvious by Sunday morning withlow temperatures in the low to mid 40s across the northern half ofthe CWA, and low to mid 50s across coastal southeast LA. This willbe the coldest temperatures we've seen in these areas in a coupleof weeks.The delivery of drier air to the air in conjunction with lingeringsevere drought conditions especially along and west of I-55 willpresent an elevated fire weather risk by Sunday. Fortunately, winds will be weakening by Sunday and Monday when minimum RH values will be at their lowest. This will mean conditions should remain below critical thresholds and will not warrant red flag warnings at this time. Even still, those living in areas with burnbans should avoid burning.&&.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Thursday)Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026A shortwave trough following the subtropical jet stream iscurrently situated over the southwest CONUS and is expected to dig through northern Mexico and into Texas over this weekend. The lift associated and mid-level moisture transported with this trough will increase cloud coverage over the area into early next week. However, due to the lingering drier low-levels and lack of low-level moisture return ahead of this mainly mid-upper level system will mean there will be very little moisture and instability for this system to work with. PoPs will be less than 10% and mainly focused along the coast as a result.Looking later into next week, global model ensemble guidancecontinues to be in reasonable agreement that longwave easternCONUS trough will be favored. This type of pattern will open us upto more cold front passages as we head into next weekend. However,it's not clear just yet how strong these fronts will be and how much it could cool us down.&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026VFR conditions continue to prevail across the area with only highcirrus noted on satellite imagery along the coast. Winds aregradually becoming more northerly, and will increase closer 10 knots with a frontal passage on Saturday morning. Dry conditionswith high pressure settling in will keep things VFR throughout theperiod.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026Winds are generally light and northerly and will remain that way until a reinforcing cold front moves through later today where offshore winds will become a little stronger, around 10 to 15 knots. Northeast winds will be strongest over the weekend with gusts upwards of 20 knots before gradually decreasing into next week as the area remains under the southeast flank of surface high pressure.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TJSLONG TERM....TJSAVIATION...TJSMARINE...TJS
