BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 2:30 AM EST978
FXUS61 KBOX 100730
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
230 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week with a
good amount of sunshine. Temperatures range from the the
30s-lower 40s overnight to upper 50s in the afternoons.
- Monitoring another storm Friday, although there remains high
uncertainty in exact timing and storm track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry & seasonable weather continues through mid-week
with a good amount sunshine. Temperatures range from the the 30s-
lower 40s overnight to upper 50s in the afternoons.
Dry westerly flow continues through the middle of the week under
zonal flow at the mid levels, sandwiched between a surface low over
eastern Canada and high pressure over the southeast U.S. Not much
change in the airmass overhead with 925 mb temps in the 6-8C range
Tue/Wed. Some lingering moisture in the mid/upper levels moves
through early leading to increased cloudcover this morning, but
drying out/clearing up by the afternoon with plenty of sun. This
continues Wednesday though we'll start to see some
moisture/increasing cloudcover filtering in later in the day
Wednesday. Altogether, should see high temperatures each day topping
out in the mid to upper 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Monitoring another storm Friday, although there
remains high uncertainty in exact timing and storm track.
The latest round of ensemble guidance continues to show large
uncertainty in the development of a potential storm as we head into
the late week/weekend, especially within the track of the low. While
all guidance continues to indicate paths anywhere from Maryland to
Nova Scotia, the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles (and their AI
ensembles) have trended towards the 40N/70W benchmark or slightly
south while the GFS ensemble shows tracks closer towards the
southern New England coast. Despite the uncertainty in track, most
guidance has indicated the low deepening into the mid 990mbs by
early Friday morning as well as 850mb temperatures dropping to below
freezing across southern New England by Friday evening, supporting
chances for some snow to mix into the region Friday and Friday
night across the higher elevation regions.
Probabilities continue to indicate only a 30-50% chance for 1"+ of
snow in the higher terrain, with the highest chances along the
eastern slopes of the Berkshires, and less than 20% probability for
3" or more. As mentioned by previous forecasters, those probabilites
assume a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, and unless we get really heavy
precipitation rates (highly unlikely), those 10:1 SLR accumulations
would likely be lower with wetter snow characterization being more
favored. Any winter weather impacts in the higher elevations are
likely to be very limited to nil, and this is reflected by low
probabilities of Minor winter storm impacts in the Probabilistic
Winter Storm Severity Index.
Heading into the second half the weekend, the low will push further
into Atlantic Canada and high pressure begins to build over the Mid-
Atlantic region, bringing a return to blustery and dry conditions to
southern New England for the start of the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
VFR conditions continue through the middle of the week despite
some scattered to broken mid level cloudiness at times. W winds
may gust on the order of 15-25 knots at times, mainly during the
daylight hours...although the Cape/Islands may see gusts linger
into the overnight period.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. RA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts
up to 30 kt. RA likely.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday night...High confidence.
Westerly wind gusts of 20-25 knots will persist at times into early
Wed with a second surge late of wind late Tue night behind a cold
front. Therefore...have continued a Small Craft Advisory for many
waters into Tue and even early Wed for our outer-waters before
things finally diminish.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft. Rain, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
12 ft. Rain.
Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 12 ft. Rain likely.
Saturday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft. Rain likely.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231-
251.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW/McMinn
AVIATION...BW/McMinn
MARINE...BW/McMinn
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 2:30 AM EST----------------
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