ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:29 PM EST045
FXUS61 KILN 072329
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
629 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An upper level low will track from the Great Lakes into New
England tonight. This will offer cooler temperatures, including
freezing temperatures overnight into Sunday morning.
2) Temperatures will make a return to above normal for high
temperatures for the first half of next week, returning to near
normal for the second half. A chance of rain arrives Wednesday night
and Thursday, with cooler below normal temperatures next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Mid and upper level low over the Eastern Great Lakes to track east
into New England overnight. Low clouds over the area will erode from
west to east late in the day thru this evening. In the wake of the
low a northwesterly flow aloft will develop with surface high
pressure over the Mid MS Valley building into the TN Valley
overnight. Clearing skies and light winds will result in chilly
overnight low temperatures. Expect lows to range from the upper 20s
to the lower 30s. Have continued the freeze warning for tonight and
Sunday morning for counties where the frost/freeze season continues.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
Northwest flow aloft will continue Sunday and then back more westerly
early next week. As surface high pressure builds to our southeast a
a southwest low level flow will develop. As a result, a dry forecast
is expected through mid week with highs moderating from the 50s on
Sunday and Monday into the lower and middle 60s Tuesday.
A digging system will result in the passage of a surface cold front
late Wednesday into Thursday. This system leads to a mid level low
that develops over the Great Lakes late in the week. This will lead
to a chance of rain beginning Wednesday night and continuing into
Thursday. The mid level low will keep the threat for precipitation in
the forecast into Friday. Temperatures will turn colder with highs
in the 50s Thursday, the 40s for Friday, and the upper 40s to around
50 Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low clouds at KCMH will clear out shortly after routine issuance
time. Thereafter, will just see thin high clouds pass across the
region through the rest of the period. Light winds will back to the
southwest overnight . Winds will start to increase after 14Z with
some gusts over 20 kt after 16Z.
OUTLOOK...Significant weather is not expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ055-
064-073-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for
INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...35
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:29 PM EST---------------
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