LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 12:48 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...038
FXUS63 KLMK 090548
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1248 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight into Monday morning
as temperatures cooling back into the mid 30s.
* A quiet weather pattern continues for the first part of the week
with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
* Rain chances return to the forecast Wednesday afternoon as a low
pressure system tracks through the region. Although it's not
expected to be a big rain maker, we could see our first flurries
of the season.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
***Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night***
Tonight, temperatures will cool into the mid to low 30s with light
winds and clear skies. Monday morning will be another chilly one,
however temperatures are not expected to drop below freezing. A
Frost Advisory has been issued and is in effect for tonight through
10am EST on Monday. The combination of calm to light winds and clear
skies will lead to radiational cooling, and is expected to develop
river valley fog again tonight.
As high pressure and northwest synoptic flow continues, near normal
temperatures and dry conditions will continue for the first part of
the work week. High temperatures on Monday will warm in the mid 60s
across the area. Nighttime lows are expected to be slightly warmer
in the upper 30s and low 40s. REFS ensemble guidance has a less than
10% chance of minimum temperatures cooling below 35 F. On Tuesday
southwesterly flow will return to the Ohio Valley as a shortwave
disturbances passes to the south of KY. This will bring slightly
warmer temperatures for the afternoon with highs in the upper 60s.
Areas west of I-65 in south central KY will have the best chance (30-
40%) of reaching 70 degrees.
***Wednesday Through Saturday***
By mid-week, the subtropical and polar jets will begin to interact
with one another and phase together. This will result in
cyclogenesis and formation of a low pressure system over in the
region. As the system shifts east, precipitation chances will return
to the forecast. Although this system has the potential to be fairly
strong, a shallow moisture profile and low PWAT values will limit
the amount of rainfall we see. Although, the placement and
trajectory of the system will play a big part into the QPF values.
Current ensemble guidance has been consistent with widespread 0.25"-
0.5". As the associated frontal boundary pushes through the region
on Thursday, a cold airmass will build into the Ohio Valley bringing
decreasing temperatures. Nighttime lows on Thursday will hover
around freezing across the area, with Friday highs in the upper 40s.
If enough moisture sticks around Thursday night into Friday morning,
areas along and east of I-75 could see their first flurries of the
season.
On Saturday, an upper-level ridge off to the west will begin to
build in behind the low pressure system. This will return surface
high pressure to the Ohio Valley, bringing dry conditions back for
the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to warm into the
upper 40s and low 50s with nighttime lows likely below freezing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the
exception of some patchy fog development near BWG and HNB. Any fog
that does develop will quickly dissipate after sunrise, with mostly
clear skies following. Winds will be generally light and out of the
SW, peaking at aorund 4-6 kt during the afternoon hours Monday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...BEN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 12:48 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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