JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:36 AM EST429
FXUS63 KJKL 071136
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
636 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A colder and drier air mass continues to move into the region,
and will linger into early next week.
- Frost is expected this weekend, with freezing temperatures also
possible. The coldest conditions will be in the valleys early in
the mornings on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026
Aloft, eastern Kentucky continues to reside on the southern and
southwestern periphery of a compact yet deep upper low moving east
from the Lower Great Lakes to the Northeast US today. Low-amplitude
shortwave ridging moves across the area tonight into early Sunday,
with a strong cyclonically-curved jet stream and shortwave moving
through the Great Lakes region Sunday. Eastern Kentucky will lie
along the southern periphery of this northwesterly flow Sunday.
At the surface, cold advection continues through today with
northwesterly surface winds backing with height. The surface ridge
axis settles over the area tonight, yielding calm winds and neutral
advection. Light west to west-southwesterly winds and neutral to
weak warm advection develop Sunday in response to the strong
shortwave and jet streak moving through the Great Lakes region.
As for weather and its impacts, continued cold advection through
this afternoon will result in a cool day, with below-normal highs
only reaching the 50s for the vast majority of locations. Scattered
to possibly broken cumulus will be possible especially towards the
West Virginia border, but also potentially along the windward side
of the Cumberland Mountains.
Mid and high clouds will stream across southern and southeastern
Kentucky tonight ahead of a passing upper tropospheric disturbance,
while low-level conditions will be supportive of at least sufficient
radiational cooling to warrant the issuance of Freeze Warnings
across all of eastern Kentucky, with low-lying locations and valleys
the most likely locations to see near-freezing to sub-freezing
conditions, though there is some uncertainty to the forecast due to
the potential for cloud cover and how quickly clearing occurs after
midnight. Current forecast lows range from the upper 20s to mid to
upper 30s.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies Sunday and neutral to weak warm
advection will allow for daytime high temperatures to start an
upward trend, with mid to upper 50s north to lower to mid 60s
elsewhere, which is near normal for highs this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 428 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026
The long-term period begins Sunday night with a series of embedded
shortwaves within the northern jet stream. Of relevance, a broad
upper-level low will be positioned over Ontario, with an upstream
trough digging near the northern Rockies. Cyclonic flow around the
Canadian low will maintain west-northwest flow aloft across eastern
Kentucky.
Conditions will remain dry across eastern Kentucky through Wednesday
as high pressure dominates the region. Sunday and Monday nights,
temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid-30s, with colder spots
dipping into the lower 30s. Recent NBM guidance has exhibited a cold
bias, so temperatures were blended with higher-resolution models to
nudge values upward, bringing the forecast back within the 25th to
75th percentile range of overall guidance. Frost and localized freeze
conditions will be most likely in these colder spots, while patchy
river valley fog will also be possible overnight.
Temperatures will warm significantly Tuesday and Wednesday as
upper-level heights rise and surface high pressure shifts across the
Southeast. Under mostly clear skies and light westerly flow aloft,
efficient daytime heating within a dry air mass will support
afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s both days (5-10
degrees above seasonal normals).
The pattern turns much colder and more unsettled late in the week. A
vigorous northern-stream shortwave diving out of western Canada will
carve out a deep, anomalous longwave trough over the eastern third of
the CONUS. An attendant cold front will sweep through the
Commonwealth late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing increasing clouds
and increasing rain chances.
The core of the upper trough is modeled to move overhead on Friday,
pushing 500 mb heights below the 5th climatological percentile and
ushering in a brisk Canadian air mass on breezy northwest winds.
Highs Friday and Saturday may struggle to climb out of the 40s, with
overnight lows potentially dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
With model soundings suggesting steep low-level lapse rates alongside
northwest upslope flow, lingering showers could mix with or
transition to the first flurries of the season across the higher
terrain of southeast Kentucky Thursday night into Friday before
surface high pressure restores dry conditions for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026
VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance time, with the exception
of the far north and far south where isolated MVFR ceilings were
observed with patchy low stratus. Localized valley fog with IFR
or worse condition this morning is still not expected to impact
TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to return areawide late in
the morning and last through the end of the period. A low-VFR
stratus or stratocumulus cloud deck may develop this afternoon
during peak heating at about 3.5 kft to 4 kft agl, with the
highest potential for a period of broken ceilings near/along the
West Virginia border. North to northwest winds at less than 10 kts
are expected until around 00z Sunday before becoming light and
variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106-108-111-114.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:36 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
