BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:05 PM EST470
FXUS61 KBOX 071805
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
105 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Updated aviation for 00z.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain continues this evening and overnight with some
urban and poor drainage flooding possible. Rain will be heavy
at times southeast MA and RI where flood risk is greatest.
- Cooler and drier conditions arrive next week, though it could
turn unsettled once more towards the second half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain gradually ends this morning. Rain
will be heavy at times southeast MA and RI, where flood risk is
greatest. Another round of lighter showers this afternoon into
Sunday.
Broad low pressure along a stalled front across eastern MA and
RI will slowly move offshore this afternoon and evening. This
low pressure should finally reach Downeast Maine and Nova Scotia
around daybreak Sunday.
While this means the widespread rainfall should be offshore by
this afternoon, we will still have to contend with a rather
potent mid level low. This low should pass overhead tonight. The
colder air aloft will result in increased lapse rates, which in
turn should generate some showers later today and tonight.
These showers will be much lighter in intensity. The greatest
coverage of showers should be towards northern MA.
Above normal temperatures continue yet again today, but will be
trending closer to normal. Expecting only slightly above normal
temperatures for Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and drier conditions arrive next week,
though it could turn unsettled once more towards the second
half of the week.
Colder air aloft continues to shift into southern New England
for the start of next week as yet another upper level trough
tracks into the region. This is a bit more notable at 850 mb and
500 mb, where temperatures fall to just below 0C and to around
- 24C at those respective levels. With cooler air aloft and a
passing shortwave just to our north, we could see some showers
around Monday. 925 mb temperatures fall to around 2-4C by Monday
night, supporting lows falling further into the 30s and low
40s, with highs Tuesday and the start of the week generally in
the 50s to low 60s. Cooler nights will persist through the week.
NAEFS and other ensemble guidance indicate no significant
deviations from the climatological percentiles for temperatures
or moisture for this coming week, though did note 90th
percentile zonal winds aloft Monday into Wednesday just to the
south of the region. Persistent westerly flow with notably
breezy conditions Monday and Tuesday is expected. Winds
generally stay westerly through much of the week, given the
series of fronts expected to move through the region. With the
drier conditions (PWATS to around 0.5" and less and dew points
back in the 30s and 40s) at the surface, not much in the way of
precipitation is expected with these frontal passages; just
cooler air. Occasional cloudiness is expected at most with
passing moist air aloft.
Towards the second half of next week, guidance has started to
pick up on the possible development of another low pressure
originating from just to the south of the region along/just off
the mid- Atlantic coast. This looks to be driven by the approach
of an upper level shortwave tracking from Canada southeast into
the mid-Atlantic region. With this possible system, we could see
the return of more unsettled conditions for the second half of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
Many areas may remain IFR through the afternoon and evening based
on the latest guidance. NW and WNW winds continue this
afternoon into the evening, and generally remain at or below 10
kt.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
IFR/MVFR ceilings in scattered rain showers overnight. West
winds start light and increase through the overnight hours;
10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kt, except for 20-30 kt gusts for
Cape and Island terminals. A more solid area of rain moves into
the eastern terminals including BOS between 08-09z. Steady rain
lingers through at least 12z Sun.
Sunday...High confidence.
MVFR and local IFR conditions improve to VFR by afternoon from
SW to NE. MVFR conditions take longer to clear out for the Cape
and Islands. W winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts as high as
30 kt by the afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends,
moderate confidence in exact timing and exact details.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence
in timing and exact details.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Sunday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Veterans Day: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence on trends, lower confidence on
exact timing and details.
Low pressure and a cold front finally move east across the
waters tonight into Sunday. Moderate to heavy rainfall possible
this morning with restricted visibility less than 1 NM at times.
Rough seas subside early this morning. Gusty W to NW winds
develop tonight into Sunday, which will lead to another round of
rough seas, mainly across the outer coastal waters. While there
will likely be several hours of a lull in Small Craft Advisory
conditions, may just extend it across the outer RI coastal
waters for messaging. Rough seas and gusty winds should return
by this evening there. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory
conditions develop tonight and continue through at least Sunday.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Monday through Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
10 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Veterans Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ232-233-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ234.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday
for ANZ235-237-255.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Belk/Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/FT
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:05 PM EST----------------
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