LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 12:32 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...291
FXUS63 KLMK 080532
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1232 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A widespread freeze is expected tonight, with a Freeze Warning in
effect from 12 AM EST Sunday - 9 AM EST.
* Watch for a few slick spots near river valleys if fog is dense and
temperatures are below freezing.
* After a quiet Sunday with highs near 60, a quiet weather pattern
with highs in the 60s returns Monday-Wednesday.
* Increasing rain shower chances and colder for late week, including
an outside chance at the first festive flakes of the year for some
by Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
Now - Sunday Night...
Dry NW flow aloft combined with high pressure at the surface will
continue to keep things dry through the end of the weekend. The
biggest story will be the cold overnight lows as good radiational
cooling allows for what should be the coldest night of the season so
far. 07/13z NBM probabilities for temps 32 or below has some fairly
widespread values over 70% meaning that a fairly widespread freeze
seems likely. Ongoing Freeze Warning for tonight looks good for most
of the area. Some of the typically milder urban areas may not quite
get there, but even then, frost looks like a good bet. Will also
likely have some river valley fog once again, and with temperatures
likely below freezing in spots folks will want to pay attention for
a few slick spots if driving through dense fog where temps are below
freezing.
Temperatures do begin to recover a bit for Sunday with highs back
near normal around 60 degrees. Sunday night will be chilly once
again, but perhaps a bit milder than tonight. Most lows should be in
the low and mid 30s, and may end up needing one more Frost Advisory
here which will likely close out the Frost/Freeze headlines for the
season. Collaboration on that will have to be done Monday with UK Ag
and surrounding offices.
Monday - Wednesday...
Dry NW flow aloft will hold over the area for the early to middle
part of the week. This will allow for continued dry conditions and
moderating temperatures. There will be a weak shortwave moving out
of the Red River Valley into the low/mid Mississippi River Valley
later Tuesday night into Wednesday, however this lead features looks
to have no notable impact on our sensible weather, at least
initially. After highs in the low and mid 60s for Monday, Tuesday
brings temps in the mid 60s to near 70. Similar temps are expected
for Wednesday, but will back off a degree or two given increased sky
cover ahead of the next system. Overall, these temperatures are
considered a bit above normal values around 60 for this time of
year. Morning lows will be in the 30s to low 40s, and will likely
see some patches of frost, especially in the eastern cooler valleys.
Wednesday Night - Saturday...
An interesting evolution of the eastern CONUS upper pattern takes
shape as we move into the later half of the work week and first part
of the weekend. We'll see some likely phasing between the polar and
subtropical jets as shortwave energy ejects across the Plains and
taps into the sub-tropical wind energy and moisture. This will
result in a developing strong system over our area, with a mature
storm then progressing up the east Coast into New England late week.
The exact timing and placement of this phase near our area will have
an impact on how much precipitation we see later Wednesday night
through Friday. Whether there will be enough lingering low level
moisture far enough west over our area to support snow chances on
Friday remains to be seen, but did notice a couple of rogue ensemble
members from the 07/00z suite do show some light snowfall during
that late week stretch. The more likely scenario is that the phase
happens late enough that the system is too far east with bulk of
the moisture, and that cold air doesn't quite catch up in time to
allow for snow. We'll monitor trends through the week.
Look for a notable cool down the 2nd half of the week into the
weekend. Highs on Friday are only expected to be in the upper 40s to
around 50, with low and mid 50s expected for Thursday and Saturday.
Later Friday evening into Friday night would be the best chance for
a few festive flakes assuming there is enough low level moisture
still lingering to work with.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds
will be generally light and out of the southwest, peaking at around
5-8 kt during the afternoon hours Sunday. River valley fog could
develop later tonight, but is currently not expected to impact any
of the terminals.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION...BEN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 12:32 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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