PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:25 PM EST925
FXUS61 KPBZ 072325
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
625 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 00z TAFs.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Outside of scattered showers this afternoon and Monday
morning around northwest PA, dry weather with rising temperature
is expected through mid week.
2) Potential for the first accumulating snow of the season late
this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An exiting closed upper low today, followed by a swift-moving
trough late Sunday into Monday morning, may drive periods of
lake-enhanced light rain showers for portions of northwest PA.
Additional tightening of the surface gradient with the second
wave yield increased afternoon wind gusts that may see portions
of eastern Tucker County approach Wind Advisory criteria.
Outside of these weather features, the prevailing outlook
through midweek sees height rises and building high pressure
that promotes dry weather and temperature rising about 5 to 10
degrees above normal by Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ensemble model guidance has fairly high certainty in the
development of the next upper level trough starting Wednesday
with a lobe of energy digging south out of Canada. But starting
Wednesday night and beyond, large variances in the
development/positioning of this system is resulting in notable
swings in potential outcomes. For example, by Saturday, current
ensemble cluster analysis suggest that the upper trough axis
could either be exiting the Atlantic Coast, OR an nearly cutoff
low sits over the eastern Tennessee River Valley. Until closer
alignment of outcomes is seen, little actionable weather
assessments can be provided.
The broad strokes of what can be said is the transition to an
active pattern Thursday through at least Saturday that may
include multiple periods of precipitation while likely pushing
area temperature below normal. The latter point also means that
scenarios do exist for the first accumulating snow of the
season, though mainly for northwest PA and the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level low pressure and affiliated low moisture will
continue to linger tonight bringing continued high probability
MVFR cigs (>75%) across the region. IFR cigs are more likely
through at least the early overnight hours for FKL/DUJ with
higher probability to linger through the rest of the night at
DUJ.
As the night progresses, drier air will work in and erode the
cloud deck from the west. This is already visible on evening
satellite imagery with a sharp cutoff in the stratus shield.
Temporal extrapolation of that to the east lends pretty good
agreement with model guidance on erosion of restrictions after
02z or so for ZZV and by daybreak for most others tomorrow
morning save DUJ and LBE where restrictions linger a bit
longer. Either way, areawide VFR returns by mid-morning.
Daytime mixing will again lead to gusty southwest wind in the
afternoon to 20-25 knots.
Outlook...
A passing cold front late Sunday into Monday brings a 60%
chance of MVFR with some rain potential (most likely for
DUJ/FKL/BVI).
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Frazier
AVIATION...MLB/Milcarek
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:25 PM EST---------------
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