ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 1:51 PM EST198
FXUS61 KILN 061851
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted NBM temperatures slightly warmer tonight and Saturday
night. Also, adjusted cloud cover to account for more low clouds
today and tonight and early Saturday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mid and upper level low will track from the Great Lakes into
New England Saturday. This will offer cooler temperatures, with the
potential for frost and freezing conditions tonight, Saturday night,
and Sunday night.
2) Temperatures will make a return to above normal for high
temperatures for the first half of next week, returning to near
normal for the second half.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Mid and upper level low to track thru the Great Lakes tonight and
into New England Saturday. This will place the Ohio Valley in a
northwest flow pattern. At the surface a secondary cold front pushed
thru the area this morning. In the wake of this front temperatures
will drop to the low to mid 30s tonight. Have continued the frost
advisory across the southern counties. Surface high pressure builds
into the Lower MS Valley Saturday/Saturday night. Considerable
clouds - especially across the north will diminish late in the day
into Saturday evening. Decreasing winds combined with clear skies
will lead to cool overnight temperatures. Expect lows generally in
the lower 30s with some cooler valleys bottoming out in the upper
20s. Some minor moderation to temperatures Sunday night but still
cool with lows in the lower and middle 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A dry forecast is expected through most of next week as northwest
flow aloft becomes more westerly. High temperatures in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Monday warm into the middle 60s Tuesday. A short wave
to dig southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday and
Friday. This system will bring the next chance for rain and offer
cooler temperatures with highs in the lower and middle 50s for Friday
and Saturday and lows in the lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low clouds have developed in the wake of cold front that moved
through the TAF/s this morning. These clouds are generally VFR
around 3500 feet but occasional periods of MVFR ceilings will be
possible. Clouds scatter for a period this evening - especially
across the southern TAF sites with additional clouds developing
overnight into Saturday in the cyclonic low level flow off the lakes.
Expect period of MVFR ceilings Saturday across the northern TAF
sites with clouds breaking up later in the afternoon.
Northwest winds gusting around 20 kts this afternoon dropping to less
than 10 kts tonight and then increasing to 10 to 12 kts Saturday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for
OHZ073-077>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for
INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 1:51 PM EST---------------
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