LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 5:28 AM CST ...NEW AVIATION...806
FXUS64 KLIX 031128 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
528 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
...NEW AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Severe weather threat
remains low.
- Mostly dry and pleasant conditions return Thursday through the
weekend, with additional cold fronts expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
The main focus of the short term will be the approaching cold
front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but before we get
there, temperatures and cloud cover will be the main forecast
challenge on Tuesday. Currently, weak shortwave ridging is moving
across the area while persistent onshore flow continues to advect
low-level moisture inland. This will keep clouds around tonight
and limit how much temperatures can cool, with lows generally in
the mid to upper 60s and around 70 south of I-10.
On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will eject northeastward across the
southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this
trough, continued warm and moist air advection will keep
temperatures above average generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.
However, exactly how much cloud cover sticks around throughout the
day will determine how warm we get. Looking at the latest short-
range guidance, cloud cover is more persistent across the eastern
portions of the area, particularly coastal Mississippi, while some
clearing is expected farther west in the afternoon. Therefore,
maximum temperatures were increased slightly along the I-12
corridor between Baton Rouge and Hammond where more afternoon
heating is expected. Meanwhile, temperatures were lowered across
the eastern half of the area due to increased confidence in
persistent cloud cover limiting daytime heating.
As we get into Tuesday night, the aforementioned trough will begin
taking on a more negative tilt as it moves into the Mississippi
Valley. This will provide sufficient large-scale forcing for
showers and a few thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the
area. However, the biggest question will be how much convection is
able to develop and maintain itself this far south. Although
moisture will be sufficient with dewpoints generally in the upper
60s to around 70, mid-level lapse rates look rather poor at less
than 5.5 C/km. This will aid in limiting instability with MLCAPE
generally struggling to reach 800 j/kg. The strongest shear will
also be displaced north of the area, with deep-layer shear less
than 30kt locally. Therefore, although a stronger storm or two
cannot be ruled out, particularly across southwest Mississippi,
the overall severe weather threat remains low.
Looking at the precipitation guidance, the models have a fairly
pronounced west-to-east difference in timing and coverage, with
the greatest probabilities generally Tuesday night and into
early Wednesday across the northwestern parts of our area. For
example, the latest NBM has a 65% 12-hr PoP at BTR ending 12z
Wednesday, compared to 10% at MSY. This illustrates the
uncertainty in how much precipitation can maintain itself as the
front moves southeast. Regardless, the front should push through
Wednesday morning with improving conditions throughout the
afternoon as dry air advection and subsidence take over behind it.
Temperatures should cool closer to average Wednesday night and
Thursday as weak cold air advection takes place behind the front.
Most inland locations should fall into the 50s Wednesday night,
with lower 60s close to the coast. Thursday looks rather pleasant
with highs generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s. However,
another shortwave approaching from the west will start increasing
cloud cover Thursday night. Although winds should be rather light
and the post frontal airmass would normally support efficient
radiational cooling, the increasing cloud cover should limit how
much temperatures can fall Friday morning. Therefore, minimum
temperatures were increased by blending the NBM 50th and 75th
percentiles to account for the reduced cooling potential.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
As we get into Friday, another positively tilted trough will be
traversing the central CONUS and approaching the lower Mississippi
Valley. This will help push a weak reinforcing cold front through
the area sometime Friday. The main question with this feature will
be whether sufficient moisture can return ahead of the front to
produce any meaningful precipitation. Looking at the global
guidance, the GFS is more aggressive with precipitation
development compared to the other guidance, but even its rainfall
amounts are relatively light. The GFS extended MOS also has a
notably higher precip signal Friday, with 12-hour PoPs of 54% at
MSY and 41% at MCB during the afternoon and evening period.
However, with limited time for meaningful moisture return
following Wednesday's frontal passage, confidence in widespread
rainfall remains rather low. A few showers will be possible, but
most locations should remain rather dry.
Behind this front, a relatively progressive upper-level pattern
looks to take over briefly on Saturday. This should bring mostly
dry and pleasant conditions with temperatures generally near
seasonal averages. However, the next upper-level trough digging
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be
something to watch as we get into Sunday and early next week.
Looking at the medium-range guidance, there is fairly decent
agreement in the overall development of this trough, but
differences begin showing up in its timing and amplification. Some
deterministic solutions are more aggressive with digging the
trough southward and potentially closing off an upper-level low
across the Mid-South early next week, while the ensemble guidance
indicates uncertainty in exactly how this feature evolves. This
will have implications on the timing and strength of the next cold
front pushing into the area late in the weekend.
Unlike the previous two fronts, this one looks to have a more
substantial continental airmass behind it. Therefore, another
cooling trend is expected toward the beginning of next week as
cooler and drier air advects southward. With little opportunity
for meaningful moisture return ahead of this front, precipitation
chances should remain rather limited. The biggest uncertainty will
be just how much cold air is able to make it this far south, which
will depend on the eventual strength and progression of the
trough.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
A mix of MVFR and IFR to start the cycle this morning. There could
be some slight improvement with CIGs rising above 3kft at times
this afternoon, but largely most terminals will remain in the MVFR
range today and this evening before CIGs lower overnight tonight.
Western terminals do have PROBs for showers late tonight and early
Wednesday. Otherwise, VIS/fog issues will be possible around
sunrise Wednesday for several terminals, especially if surface
winds decrease. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026
Moderate easterly winds of 15 to 20 kt will continue across the
coastal waters tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions
lingering over portions of the waters through midnight. As the
pressure gradient relaxes ahead of the approaching cold front,
winds will gradually decrease and become more southeasterly
Tuesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the front moves through the waters. Winds
will shift offshore behind the front Wednesday, but with limited
cold air advection and a relatively weak pressure gradient, a
significant post frontal wind surge is not expected. This should
allow seas to gradually subside through Thursday. Another weak
cold front will move through Friday, followed by a potentially
stronger front late in the weekend that could bring another
increase in offshore winds.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...JZ
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 5:28 AM CST ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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