PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 10:32 AM CST229
FXUS63 KPAH 071632
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1032 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the entire region
tonight. Widespread frost/freeze overnight will likely end
the growing season. Patchy fog is also possible near bodies of
water.
- Above normal temperatures are expected Monday through
Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70
degrees. The warming trend may also lead to more widespread
patchy fog Monday morning.
- Rain showers have increased to a 30-50% chance Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening as a cold blast filters into
the region. Sprinkles linger into Thursday with breezy
conditions, followed by a 40-60% chance of highs struggling to
reach 50 degrees on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
A chilly start to the weekend as high pressure is now in control
over the FA with tranquil conditions. Highs today will only be in the
50s with lows progged near 32 degrees. While temperatures on the NBM
are below the 50th percentile Sunday morning, MOS guidance again is
running a few degrees warmer. Unlike this morning, tonight the
entire FA will experience mostly clear skies that will allow the
boundary layer to quickly decouple with calm winds. Given robust
radiational cooling in a dry airmass, tend to lean towards the
colder NBM which means a widespread freeze that will end the growing
season for most of the region. For this reason, a Freeze Warning
remains in effect tonight. Patchy fog will also be possible near
warm bodies of water.
The colder temperatures do not last long as southerly return flow on
Sunday begins to advect in warmer air with a modest increase in
moisture. More widespread patchy fog along with frost Monday morning
is favored. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be above
normal in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees before a potent cold
front plows through the FA late Wednesday. The NBM continues to
trend wetter with the LREF now supporting a 30-50% chance of rain
showers Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, exceeding a
tenth or two of an inch. However, the deterministic GFS remains more
robust with a low pressure system rapidly developing over western
Tennessee with heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds persisting into
Thursday. The GFS at the moment is a large outlier as the left
entrance region associated with a 130 kt jet at 250 mb would favor
the more progressive AI GFS/EC/EC AIFS that would only bring light
precipitation to the FA, supported by the LREF.
Putting it all together, after scattered rain showers exit the
region by Thursday morning, lingering sprinkles will remain possible
on Thursday with breezy conditions. An amplified broad 500 mb trough
and embedded vort max with 700 mb moisture will dig across the FA.
Due to a tight pressure gradient with increasing cyclogenesis
favored more east over the Mid Atlantic region, wind gusts over 20
mph will be possible during the day with northwest flow. In fact,
850 mb temps plummeting below 0C will translate to a 40-60% chance
of high temperatures struggling to reach 50 degrees on Friday as the
coldest airmass of the season so far will persist into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon with increasing high
cirrus clouds. Skies turn clear again tonight with calm winds.
Cannot rule out some patchy fog near bodies of water, but the
probability is too low to include any mention in the TAFs. North
winds today shift southwest Sunday morning around 5-7 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday for
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Freeze Warning from 11 PM CST /midnight EST/ this evening to 8
AM CST /9 AM EST/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Sunday for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 10:32 AM CST---------------
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