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958 FXUS64 KLIX 030601AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1201 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Severe weather threat remains low.- Mostly dry and pleasant conditions return Thursday through the weekend, with additional cold fronts expected.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026The main focus of the short term will be the approaching cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but before we get there, temperatures and cloud cover will be the main forecast challenge on Tuesday. Currently, weak shortwave ridging is moving across the area while persistent onshore flow continues to advectlow-level moisture inland. This will keep clouds around tonight and limit how much temperatures can cool, with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s and around 70 south of I-10. On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will eject northeastward across thesouthern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of thistrough, continued warm and moist air advection will keeptemperatures above average generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.However, exactly how much cloud cover sticks around throughout theday will determine how warm we get. Looking at the latest short-range guidance, cloud cover is more persistent across the easternportions of the area, particularly coastal Mississippi, while someclearing is expected farther west in the afternoon. Therefore,maximum temperatures were increased slightly along the I-12corridor between Baton Rouge and Hammond where more afternoonheating is expected. Meanwhile, temperatures were lowered acrossthe eastern half of the area due to increased confidence inpersistent cloud cover limiting daytime heating.As we get into Tuesday night, the aforementioned trough will begintaking on a more negative tilt as it moves into the MississippiValley. This will provide sufficient large-scale forcing forshowers and a few thunderstorms as a cold front approaches thearea. However, the biggest question will be how much convection isable to develop and maintain itself this far south. Althoughmoisture will be sufficient with dewpoints generally in the upper60s to around 70, mid-level lapse rates look rather poor at lessthan 5.5 C/km. This will aid in limiting instability with MLCAPEgenerally struggling to reach 800 j/kg. The strongest shear willalso be displaced north of the area, with deep-layer shear lessthan 30kt locally. Therefore, although a stronger storm or twocannot be ruled out, particularly across southwest Mississippi,the overall severe weather threat remains low.Looking at the precipitation guidance, the models have a fairlypronounced west-to-east difference in timing and coverage, withthe greatest probabilities generally Tuesday night and intoearly Wednesday across the northwestern parts of our area. Forexample, the latest NBM has a 65% 12-hr PoP at BTR ending 12zWednesday, compared to 10% at MSY. This illustrates theuncertainty in how much precipitation can maintain itself as thefront moves southeast. Regardless, the front should push throughWednesday morning with improving conditions throughout theafternoon as dry air advection and subsidence take over behind it.Temperatures should cool closer to average Wednesday night andThursday as weak cold air advection takes place behind the front.Most inland locations should fall into the 50s Wednesday night,with lower 60s close to the coast. Thursday looks rather pleasantwith highs generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s. However,another shortwave approaching from the west will start increasingcloud cover Thursday night. Although winds should be rather lightand the postfrontal airmass would normally support efficientradiational cooling, the increasing cloud cover should limit howmuch temperatures can fall Friday morning. Therefore, minimumtemperatures were increased by blending the NBM 50th and 75thpercentiles to account for the reduced cooling potential.&&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026As we get into Friday, another positively tilted trough will betraversing the central CONUS and approaching the lower MississippiValley. This will help push a weak reinforcing cold front throughthe area sometime Friday. The main question with this feature willbe whether sufficient moisture can return ahead of the front toproduce any meaningful precipitation. Looking at the globalguidance, the GFS is more aggressive with precipitationdevelopment compared to the other guidance, but even its rainfallamounts are relatively light. The GFS extended MOS also has anotably higher precip signal Friday, with 12-hour PoPs of 54% atMSY and 41% at MCB during the afternoon and evening period.However, with limited time for meaningful moisture returnfollowing Wednesdya's frontal passage, confidence in widespreadrainfall remains rather low. A few showers will be possible, butmost locations should remain rather dry. Behind this front, a relatively progressive upper-level pattern looks to take over briefly on Saturday. This should bring mostly dry and pleasant conditions with temperatures generally near seasonal averages. However, the next upper-level trough digging southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be something to watch as we get into Sunday and early next week.Looking at the medium-range guidance, there is fairly decentagreement in the overall development of this trough, butdifferences begin showing up in its timing and amplification. Somedeterministic solutions are more aggressive with digging thetrough southward and potentially closing off an upper-level lowacross the Mid-South early next week, while the ensemble guidanceindicates uncertainty in exactly how this feature evolves. This will have implications on the timing and strength of the next coldfront pushing into the area late in the weekend.Unlike the previous two fronts, this one looks to have a moresubstantial continental airmass behind it. Therefore, anothercooling trend is expected toward the beginning of next week ascooler and drier air advects southward. With little opportunityfor meaningful moisture return ahead of this front, precipitationchances should remain rather limited. The biggest uncertainty willbe just how much cold air is able to make it this far south, whichwill depend on the eventual strength and progression of thetrough.&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026The main aviation concern throughout this TAF period will continueto be low ceilings as plenty of low-level moisture remains acrossthe area. MVFR ceilings are expected at several terminalsovernight and into Tuesday morning, with the greatest concern forIFR conditions at MCB where ceilings could fall below 1000 ftaround daybreak. Elsewhere, ceilings should generally remain MVFR,although some temporary improvements to VFR are possibleovernight. As daytime mixing increases Tuesday, ceilings shouldgradually improve, but persistent cloud cover may keep someterminals MVFR into the afternoon, especially across the easternportions of the area. Winds will generally remain out of the eastto southeast around 5-10 kt, with some higher gusts possible alongthe Mississippi coast during the afternoon. A few showers willalso be possible later Tuesday as the next system approaches fromthe west, but confidence in direct terminal impacts remains ratherlow.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026Moderate easterly winds of 15 to 20 kt will continue across thecoastal waters tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditionslingering over portions of the waters through midnight. As thepressure gradient relaxes ahead of the approaching cold front,winds will gradually decrease and become more southeasterlyTuesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesdaynight into Wednesday as the front moves through the waters. Windswill shift offshore behind the front Wednesday, but with limitedcold air advection and a relatively weak pressure gradient, asignificant postfrontal wind surge is not expected. This shouldallow seas to gradually subside through Thursday. Another weakcold front will move through Friday, followed by a potentiallystronger front late in the weekend that could bring anotherincrease in offshore winds.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532- 534>536-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ534>536- 551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...JZLONG TERM....JZAVIATION...JZMARINE...JZ
