IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:41 PM EST523
FXUS63 KIWX 051741
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1241 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy drizzle and showers at times. Not as warm with highs
only in the 50s.
- Lake effect rain tonight through Friday, tapering off
Saturday morning.
- Seasonably cold this weekend with highs in the 50s. Cold
Sunday morning with lows near freezing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
A 996mb low swirls over the UP this morning (bringing much needed
rain to a drought-striken area), with a secondary shortwave trough
aloft digging into extreme eastern Iowa. This has spawned a fairly
widespread area of rain and drizzle upstream. This feature is
still digging south-southeast this hour but is expected to lift
northeast this afternoon. As it does so, scattered showers will
move through for the afternoon. Remaining somewhat breezy once
more with a modest pressure gradient still in play. Temperatures
only in the 50s today with only modest cold air advection noted
aloft due to boundary- parallel flow. However, a strong push of
CAA rushes in this evening/tonight as the primary trough axis
(digging in through Minnesota this morning) sweeps through. This
CAA and lift promotes widespread showers followed by lake
effect rain showers. If you're a snow lover, this is truly a
waste of what would otherwise be an impressive lake effect snow
set up. High resolution CAMS suggest QPF through the event
of 0.30-0.50". Equilibrium levels crest at nearly 9,000 ft,
indicative of excellent lake induced lift. A single band of
rain is anticipated late Thursday night through Friday night
that follows the eastern shore and wavers over La Porte and
western St. Joseph (IN) counties. Lake effect comes to and end
Saturday morning as equilibrium levels fall in response to
rising heights aloft with the parent trough moving off.
Compared to recent temperatures, very cold early Sunday morning in
the wake of this system as skies clear and high pressure descends
over the Great Lakes. Lows will be near freezing which is just shy
of normal: 35 degrees. Over the course of next week, a classic sine
wave pattern takes shape at 500mb with a towering Central US
ridge bookended by troughs. We'll be on the edge of seasonably
cool northwest flow. If northwest flow wins out, we could see
episodes of light rain (though Pacific moisture transport is
poor). Alternatively, mild and dry conditions could prevail if
the ridge to our west shifts east late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
A complicated interaction between three areas of vorticity controls
our weather at the local level for this taf period. MVFR CIGs will
still be possible this afternoon as our main upper low slowly
meanders northeastward and dampens out. Those CIGs will be more
probable at SBN than FWA, but will become even more probable overall
as a cold front pushes through the area. This is in conjunction with
a vigorous shortwave sliding southeastward down Lk MI. That doesn't
really get to the tear drop of the lake until around 12z tonight and
there's not a whole lot of lake induced instability with only around
15 to 20C Delta T. So would expect a multicellular disorganized area
of lake effect rain to get under way Friday. A combination of
trajectories and wind convergence appear to take the best area of
precipitation south of FWA, but mostly through SBN with a quick time
period potentially west of SBN. This would lead to a continuation of
MVFR CIGs and times of MVFR VISBY, especially as the main cold front
swings through. Overall, trajectories will be veering from
southwesterly to northwesterly through the period. Additionally,
focused on either side of FROPA, sustained winds above 10 kts will
be likely.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:41 PM EST---------------
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