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129 FXUS64 KLIX 021836AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1236 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026- Next system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will begin during the Tuesday impacting election day while a few stronger storms will be possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday with the front.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Thursday night)Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026Through tonight, a shortwave ridge axis will continue to pass overthe region. This will keep overall rain chances at 10 percent orless as weak subsidence aloft keeps the mid to upper levels dryand largely stable. In the low levels, a persistent onshore flowwill continue to usher in Gulf moisture resulting in continuedstrato-cumulus development beneath the mid-level inversion andabove average temperatures and dewpoints. Lows will only dip intothe mid to upper 60s, and a few a locations may only cool into thelow 70s south of I-10. The warm and moist airmass will start to feel the influence of anapproaching shortwave trough passing through the Arklatex regiontomorrow afternoon. Favorable jet dynamics will be in place tosupport a broad region of increased forcing across the forecastarea as the area finds itself beneath the entrance region of anupper level jet streak. The trough itself will start to take on amore negative tilt as it ejects into the Mississippi Valleytomorrow evening into tomorrow night, but the best shear willremain displaced well to the north of the forecast area. Bulkshear will stay below 30 knots and helicity values will struggleto exceed 100 m2/s2 in the lowest 3km. Additionally, overall thermodynamic support will be lacking as mid-level lapse rates remain below 5.5 C/KM and overall mixed layer CAPE struggles to reach 800 J/KG. Given these limiting factors, the severe threatwill be very low for Tuesday night. One or two stronger storms maytry to form in southwest Mississippi where forcing will begreatest, but most of the activity will be in the form of light tomoderate rain showers through the night over the forecast area.Temperatures will remain above average with highs in the low tomid 80s tomorrow and lows only cooling into the mid to upper 60sahead of an approaching front tomorrow night. The front will sweep through the area Wednesday morning with lingering rain showers, but improving conditions are expected by the afternoon hours as increasing negative vorticity and dry air advection takes hold. Weak cold air advection will also take placebehind the front, and this will allow temperatures to cool closerto average from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Lows willdip into the 50s inland and low 60s south of the lake each nightand highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s. &&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday night)Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026Looking up stream a positively tilted H5 trough will be sliding across the central plains generally toward our region. At the surface a weak frontal boundary will drop southward toward our area. Globals show just enough upper level support for some shower development Friday, but vary on amounts with the GFS a bit more bullish (albeit still lower end) in terms of QPF signal. For now POPs are going to be on the lower side, but some upward trend in subsequent forecasts will be possible. As the front moves through the airmass behind the front does cool us back down to around average. A progressive upper level pattern develops briefly on Saturday before a strong upper level trough digs southward. This one will actually contain a more Canadian airmass meaning behind the next front late in the weekend expect temperatures to be cooler than the prior front. Given the lack of a meaningful return flow, expect a mostly dry frontal passage, at least as it would appear now. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026A broken deck of cloud cover generally ranging between 1500 and2500 feet will remain in place at nearly all of the terminals through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. This cloud deck is being fed by a persistent east-southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots this afternoon that will relax slightly to 5 to 10 knots during the overnight hours. There may be some very minor visibility restrictions of around 5 miles that develop at MCB andHDC around 12z tomorrow, largely tied to the stratus build down to around 500 to 900 feet that is expected to occur as winds fall to 5 knots or less at these specific terminals. The ceilings willgradually lift after 14z at these terminals.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026Continued gusty easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist into tonight over the waters resulting in continued rough seas. Small craft advisories remain in effect through this evening due to these conditions. Winds should gradually weaken and become more southeasterly Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes ahead of the approaching cold front. Given the expected flattening of the upper-level trough aloft and limited support behind the frontal boundary, a significant post-frontal wind surge does not appear likely. Winds should shift offshore Wednesday into Thursday, generally remaining light to moderate as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will also allow seas to gradually subside. Showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday before drier conditions return. Another round of showers will also move through the waters Friday as a reinforcing cold front sweeps through the region.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532- 534>536-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ534>536- 551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....RFAVIATION...PG MARINE...PG
