JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 4:18 PM EST506
FXUS63 KJKL 052118
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
418 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another cold front will cross the area on Friday and usher a
colder and drier airmass into the region for the weekend.
- A widespread frost is likely this weekend, and a freeze is also
possible. The coldest temperatures will be in the deeper
valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 418 PM EST THU NOV 5 2026
A surface ridge of high pressure resides over our area in the
wake of our recent cold front and is bringing our mostly clear
skies. However, it will be transitory, as a potent upper level
trough and associated surface cold front are heading our direction
from the northwest. The upper level system is forecast to develop
into a sizable closed low which moves slowly southeast over the
Great Lakes during the short term period. This will support the
continued progress of the cold front into our area on Friday.
Although, models suggest the front will lose definition as it
arrives, with the end result being simply continued advection of
cooler/drier air into our area. Moisture will be limited along the
front, and we are unlikely to see anything more than some clouds
and perhaps some sprinkles. If skies can clear effectively enough
on Friday night as high pressure again builds in from the
northwest, we could see frost and some places near freezing by
Saturday morning. The places most likely to see this happen are in
our northern and western counties. There is also likely to be
valley fog each night, but perhaps to a lesser extent on Friday
night. However, where it occurs, it would temper the frost
development.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 418 PM EST THU NOV 5 2026
The start of the forecast period is characterized by quiet weather
and below average temperatures. Steady, deep northwesterly flow in
the wake of Friday's cold front, a building surface high pressure
system, and dry air throughout the column will keep meaningful
chances of rain out of the forecast through at least the weekend.
The most notable sensible weather impacts this weekend will come
from potential frost and/or river valley fog at night. After any
remnant fog/frost burn off on Saturday morning, temperatures will
likely struggle to warm much higher than the mid/upper 50s. This will
give Saturday night's lows a head start in the race towards
freezing, but just how cold it gets will be contingent upon how much
dry air mixes down to the surface earlier this afternoon. A similar
setup is in store for Sunday, so mesoscale dewpoint trends will need
to be monitored closely as the time approaches. Frost is certainly
on the table in the sheltered and shaded hollows on both Saturday
and Sunday nights, but the geographical extent of the frost outside
of this is contingent upon how the crossover temperatures will set
up. If dewpoints are only able to mix down into the mid 30s, fog
could be favored over frost. On the other hand, if dewpoints mix to
values well below that critical 32 degrees mark, a widespread frost
(and potentially even a localized freeze) is plausible. Near the
main stem river valleys, fog is currently the favored solution,
especially given the recent rainfall. The last frost/freeze forecast
did not fully come to fruition, and the baseline NBM model guidance
used to populate the grids appears to be quite cold in this time
frame. Thus, agricultural interests are strongly encouraged to
monitor for future forecast updates.
A gradual warming trend kicks off on next week, with temps creeping
closer to 70 by midweek. The persistence of a broad surface high
pressure and a return to quasi-zonal flow aloft should also keep us
dry through the end of the period, although there is a signal that
the upper level pattern could turn more active in the latter half of
the work week. Rain chances accordingly creep back into the forecast
from Wednesday night into Thursday, but those PoPs are quite low at
this time. This is a testament to lingering model spread regarding
the setup, so those with late week outdoor plans should monitor to
see if those rain chances increase with subsequent forecast
packages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST THU NOV 5 2026
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with only
a couple of exceptions. Valley fog with IFR or worse conditions
is expected overnight and early Friday, especially in the
larger/deeper valleys of southeast KY. It is not forecast to
affect TAF sites. Also, a cold front will be entering the JKL
forecast area from the northwest toward the end of the period and
is forecast to bring high end MVFR or low end VFR ceilings.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DISINGER/MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 4:18 PM EST---------------
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