MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 6:04 PM CST ...New AVIATION...381
FXUS64 KMOB 050004
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
604 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 602 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
beaches this afternoon, becoming Moderate tonight.
- A cold front will move into the area today, with a few periods
of rainshowers and thunderstorms across the area. The threat
for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.
- A much cooler and drier airmass moves over the area this
weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
Through Thursday, an upper level shortwave trough over the
Southeast quickly swings away into tonight, with a modest cold
front that is starting to move across the forecast area at
17z/11am continuing to advance southeast. With the upper dynamics
moving quickly off, the front is expected to slow and stall over
the forecast area later today. The first item to deal with this
front is precipitation. So far, showers and thunderstorms have
been confined to near the front, with a little to no electrical
activity reported. As the front advances today, it is expected to
move into an area with MLCapes of around 1500J/kg. Guidance is
advertising Bulk wind shear values of 25-40kts. Upper support has
moved off, so am expecting the risk of any strong to marginally
severe storms to be low, with winds the primary threat. Also, more
thunderstorms are expected to mix in. Heading into tonight, where
the front stalls will influence the possibility of fog
development tonight. Where ranges from along I-65 to over the Gulf
coast. Am leaning with the weakening front stalling near I-65,
with the majority of the guidance leading that direction. Deep
layer moisture decreases northwest of I-65, but boundary layer
moisture remains good enough, that when combined with weakening
boundary layer winds, for fog to form. Patchy fog has been added
to areas along and south of I-65 for later tonight. Heading into
Thursday, there is expected to be enough moisture for a slight
chance of main rainshowers well southeast of I-65. Temperatures
remain above seasonal norms, with high temperatures in the low to
mid 80s. Low temperatures tonight see a bit of a drop as the deep
layer moisture moves off and skies clear, and are expected to
range from the upper 50s over northwestern-most portions of the
forecast area to near 70 southeast of I-65.
Thursday night through Saturday night, a weakening upper level
shortwave trough passes over the Southeast Thursday night through
Friday, with the front moving south of the marine portion of the
forecast area later Thursday night through Friday morning. A drier
and cooler airmass moves over the forecast in the process, with
precipitable h20 values dropping to around 0.5" or less by Saturday
night. High temperatures drop into the around 70 to mid 70s range
for Saturday, with low temperatures dropping into, dare I say it,
upper 30s to around 40 north of Highway 84 to upper 40s south of I-
10.
Sunday through Wednesday starts with a closed upper low over the
Southern Plains, with an upper ridge stretching northeast over the
Rockies from California and a mean upper rough along the East Coast.
Handling of this upper low ranges from meandering over the Southern
Plains to Desert Southwest, whilst others are advertising the
upper low getting caught in northwestern mean upper flow and
passing over the Southeast. All are advertising a reinforcing shot
of cooler air moving over the Southeast Sunday into Monday,
bringing temperatures well below seasonal. With the airmass being
dry, am not expecting any precipitation in the coming week.
Guidance is adverting the airmass over the Southeast modifying
into mid week, with temperatures rising to near seasonal norms by
mid week.
Looking at our coastal areas, with the flow over the Gulf becoming
more settled, that when combined with a decreasing tidal cycle, will
bring a Low Risk of Rip Currents to area beaches the rest of the
week through the weekend.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
Another soggy night of flying along the Gulf Coast. A northeast to
southwest oriented broken band of showers and thunderstorms is
slowly pushing east across south-central to southwest AL. Ahead of
this line resides soupy conditions that provide periods of MVFR to
IFR ceilings. This line is expected to lift north and east as it
breaks apart overnight giving way to calm winds, but will aid in
the potential for IFR ceilings and patchy to scattered fog which
would bring categories to IFR or lower at any given site. As the
sun rises, fog should burn off and lower scattered to broken
ceilings will persist until the front finally pushes through
clearing the way for clear skies at some point late Thursday
afternoon or evening.
KL/31
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
Onshore winds continue to weaken, becoming light and
variable Thursday as a weakening front stalls near the northern Gulf
coast. A light to moderate offshore flow develops Friday as the
front moves offshore, becoming a moderate offshore flow over the
weekend in the wake of a cold front. Seas 2 to 4 feet today continue
to decrease to 1 to 2 feet by Thursday.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 83 57 78 / 20 0 0 0
Pensacola 70 81 64 77 / 10 10 10 0
Destin 71 78 66 77 / 10 20 20 0
Evergreen 66 80 55 76 / 40 10 10 0
Waynesboro 56 81 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 60 79 51 75 / 40 0 0 0
Crestview 68 82 59 78 / 10 40 20 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 6:04 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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