MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:10 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...214
FXUS64 KMOB 031810
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1210 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
beaches through tonight. Surf heights up to 5 feet are
expected, creating rough surf on area beaches.
- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
conditions for small craft into Wednesday.
- A cold front will move through the area late Wednesday, with a
few periods of rainshowers and thunderstorms across the area.
The threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
Through Thursday, an upper low moving east over the northern/central
Plains with a trough stretching south over the southern Plains
contends with an upper ridge over the eastern Conus and another
upper low that develops off the East Coast through Wednesday. As the
Plains system pushes east, the upper ridge deflects the main part of
the system northeast. Guidance is advertising the trough south of
the main system taking a negative tilt as it moves over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley to over the Southeast, but with the
northeast deflection of the main system, the better enhancement of
the dynamics also gets deflected generally north of us here on
the northern Gulf coast. Timing of this system is more consistent
than previous days, with the initial rainshowers and thunderstorms
developing on the north-central Gulf coast Tuesday afternoon.
Overnight Tuesday night, we have MLCapes of 800-1300J/kg along
with EBWD shear around 35kts. Guidance is advertising an 850mb
passing over the western half of the Southeast, with the strongest
part of the jet being over the northern part of the region and
Tennessee River Valley. The jet is strong enough for guidance to
advertise Tds increasing into the low 70s into Wednesday. Guidance
is advertising 0-1km helicities > 100m^s/2^s over areas north of
Highway 84 overnight. All in all, there is a low chance of rowdy
storms Tuesday night. Low, but feel not zero. Wind damage, maybe
a spinner, are the primary threats. Mid level lapse rates are low
(helped by the instability limiting mid level height falls being
very, very limited over the northern Gulf Coast), so the chance of
large hail is expected to be small. Timing is soon after sunset
over western portions of the forecast area moving to near the
Tombigbee River by sunrise Wednesday. Heading into Wednesday, the
increased dewpoints help instability to rise a bit (MLCapes rising
into the 1000-1500J/kg range), but with the upper dynamics moving
off, the better wind shear and upper support moves east or
northeast, respectively, of the forecast area. A slowing cold
front begins moving across the forecast area Wednesday, providing
the oomph for another round of rainshowers and thunderstorms, with
the better coverage being over northern and eastern portion of
the forecast area. The risk of rowdy storms decreases though the
morning as the instability and upper dynamics separate. Still a
possibility, though, with wind damage the primary threat. Will
continue to monitor. As of this writing, SPC has placed the
forecast area under a general thunder coverage for Tuesday night
through Wednesday.
Later Wednesday through Friday night, the weakening cold front
stalls over the forecast area Wednesday evening. The wind shift in
the guidance places the front stalling roughly along I-65. So far,
using the dew point front as a guide, drier air approaches the
northwestern quarter of the forecast area by Thursday evening, but
stalling. Comparing the deterministic and ensembles, there continues
to be inconsistency. Another upper level shortwave trough passes
north of the forecast area Friday, with the front moving south of
the forecast area by Friday evening, and cooler, drier airmass
beings to move over the forecast area for the weekend.
There is consistency in temperatures remain above seasonal norms
through Friday. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
expected. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s tonight fall into
the around 50 northwest of low 60s near the coast Thursday night
with the decrease in low level southerly flow over the north-central
Gulf coast combined with clearing skies. Behind the front, low
temperatures drop into the upper 40s north of Highway 84 to mid 50s
south of I-10 expected Friday night.
Saturday through the Tuesday, guidance is advertising another upper
system approaching the Southeast. Handling of this system is very
inconsistent in the guidance, with some advertising the system
getting caught in an upper ridge that has built north west of the
Rockies and stalling over the Southern Plains, whilst others
advertise the upper system getting caught in a mean upper trough
digging south over the eastern Conus and moving off. The current
forecast is based upon the upper system moving over the Southeast as
it gets caught in the upper rough, bringing a reinforcing short of
cooler, drier northerly airmass to the forecast. Temperatures drop
to below seasonal norms for Sunday and Monday, with a dry forecast
indicated.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
MVFR ceilings improve to mostly VFR this afternoon, then lower to
MVFR this evening, with the potential for IFR/LIFR ceilings with
possible fog late tonight. Conditions improve to MVFR/VFR
Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible
through much of the period. Southeasterly winds around 10 knots
diminish to 5 knots or less this evening, then a mainly southerly
flow at 5-10 knots develops Wednesday morning. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
A moderate to strong easterly flow continues today. Winds
will shift southeasterly to southerly tonight as a system approaches
the area. Winds weaken to a light southerly flow Wednesday, becoming
a light and variable flow Thursday into Friday as a cold front
stalls north of the coast Wednesday night. Winds shift out of the
north, becoming light to moderate late Friday night into the weekend
as the cold front moves south over area waters. Seas of 5 to 6 feet
today gradually decrease through mid-week.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 66 83 63 82 / 20 30 30 10
Pensacola 70 81 68 80 / 50 20 0 20
Destin 71 80 69 80 / 70 40 10 20
Evergreen 64 83 61 81 / 60 60 30 40
Waynesboro 64 81 53 81 / 20 40 10 10
Camden 64 80 59 77 / 70 70 30 10
Crestview 67 83 64 82 / 70 50 0 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 12:10 PM CST ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
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