CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 11:56 PM EST923
FXUS61 KCLE 020456
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1156 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made a few adjustments to PoPs through Monday based on latest
high resolution guidance, but otherwise no changes needed with
this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will continue to drift east through Tuesday with
gradually warming temperatures expected. Light, scattered rain
showers are possible in portions of the area late tonight into
Monday.
2) Confidence is increasing that a low pressure will impact the
region midweek, resulting in widespread rain showers Wednesday
and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue to drift east of the area over the
next couple of days, resulting in increasing moisture and
gradually increasing temperatures through Tuesday. Similar to
yesterday, there will likely be virga through this evening with
rain chances increasing slightly as shortwave energy aloft moves
into the region tonight through Monday. The best chance of
showers will be across western zones where there will be better
low to mid-level moisture. Upper level ridging will briefly
build into the area late Monday night/early Tuesday which will
nudge any showers out of the local area by Tuesday morning. Warm
air advection will provide above normal temperatures through at
least Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s Monday giving
way to high temps in the low to mid 70s Tuesday afternoon. A few
spots east of I-71 will likely reach the upper 70s on Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The pattern will start to shift late Tuesday into Wednesday as a
deep upper trough approaches from the west. A cold front
will approach the local area Wednesday and cross the CWA on
Thursday. This will result in a high probability of showers
throughout the day Wednesday with rain chances continuing into
Thursday. As of now, it appears that impacts from the mid to
late week system will be minimal. There may be some moderate to
heavy rain, but recent dry weather will mitigate any flooding
issues. There's also some potential for thunder on Wednesday,
although instability will likely be marginal and severe weather
is not anticipated. It appears that lake-enhanced rain chances
will linger through Friday and possibly into next weekend as an
unsettled pattern aloft pushes a series of upper troughs across
the local area. Temperatures will remain above normal through
the middle of the week before moderating late week and into the
weekend. By Saturday, highs are forecast to be in the cooler but
more seasonable 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. A bit of moisture and
lift aloft is leading to mid-level clouds and perhaps a few
sprinkles/light showers that will be around through Monday. Any
rain that reaches the ground will be quite light and is not
expected to bring any vsby restrictions. Ceilings at or below
5000 feet will slowly overspread most of the area from west-east
on Monday, with a potential window for MVFR remaining mainly
west of CLE. Winds will remain mainly southerly through the TAF
period, increasing a bit to 5-10kt during the day Monday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
South/southwest flow around 10 knots or less will persist over
Lake Erie through Monday as high pressure shifts east of the
local area. By Monday night, offshore flow will likely deepen to
10 to 15 knots before increasing to 15 to 20 knots as a cold
front approaches from the west Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed if winds trend several
knots higher, but at this point any waves over 4 feet will be
focused into the open waters. Winds will shift to the southwest
and diminish to 10 to 15 knots behind the cold front Thursday
before flow becomes more northwesterly during the day Friday. As
of now, winds are forecast to remain below 20 knots Friday, but
may need Small Craft Advisories if wind speeds trend closer to
20 knots in future updates.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 11:56 PM EST---------------
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