BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 7:58 PM EDT446
FXUS61 KBOX 312358
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and cool conditions continue through the weekend.
- Dry, seasonably warm temperatures continue through much of the
week. The next chance for rain likely doesn't arrive until
late Thursday or Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool conditions continue through the
weekend.
Large high pressure continues to be the primary driver of the
pleasant days and cool nights through the weekend. Expecting
another night of radiational cooling with calming winds and
clear skies to significantly drop temperatures tonight and again
Sunday night... overnight lows away from the coast likely drop
into the mid 20s tonight and low to mid 30s Sunday night. 925mb
temperatures warm significantly over the next 24 to 36 hours, up
from +3C this morning t0 +10C by Sunday evening. This will jump
start a warming trend for the week, with high temperatures
Sunday expected to be slightly higher compared to today... in
the upper 50s, possibly low 60s in the CT River Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry, seasonably warm temperatures continue
through much of the week. The next chance for rain likely
doesn't arrive until late Thursday or Friday.
Mid level ridging and high pressure dominates the pattern
through Thursday, continuing the period of dry weather.
Anomalously high heights and mid-level temperatures will
accompany the pattern favoring above normal temperatures through
much of the week. 925mb temperatures ranging between +12 to
+15C will yield high temperatures in the 60s each day. Highs
around 70 are possible in areas with the highest probabilities
Thursday as the mid-level thermal ridge axis shifts over.
Ensemble guidance shows a consensus in a shift of the pattern
late Thursday into Friday as a mid-level trough pushes into the
region. This may be our next best shot at precipitation,
sometime in the late Thursday-Saturday timeframe. However, there
is still a considerable amount of spread across ensemble
solutions and deterministic guidance with respect to the track
of this trough and its surface features. This will influence
details such as precip probabilities, timing, and amounts.
Ensemble guidance highlights probabilities 50-75% for 24hr
precipitation greater than 0.01", dropping off to low
probabilities for greater than 0.5". The ECMWF ensemble has
leaned wetter with probabilities closer to 60-80% for 0.01" or
greater and moderate probabilities for greater than 0.1".
Overall, there is potential for this to be our next chance for
rain after a prolonged dry period although confidence is lower
in the coverage, timing, and amounts of the rain at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight through Sunday Night: High confidence.
VFR. Light NW to WNW winds thru 12z Sunday (calm at times,
especially interior). Winds then shift to WSW/SW with speeds
increasing to around 5-10 kt, stronger end of that range for
eastern airports. Winds remain around 5-10 kt through Sunday
night.
Monday: High confidence.
VFR. SW winds around 8-12 kt, with sporadic gusts to around low
20s kt range through 22z/sundown, then gusts ease.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
SCAs have expired as winds have fallen below 25 kts across most
of the waters. Seas gradually subside to 2-3 ft across most of
the waters by midnight tonight. Continued high pressure will
allow winds to weaken to 10 kt or less and seas to remain around
2-3 ft. Tranquil conditions on Sunday with winds around 10-15
kt and 2-3 ft seas.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Monday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McMinn/Mensch
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 7:58 PM EDT----------------
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