IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 1:15 AM EST334
FXUS63 KIND 010615
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
115 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light showers or drizzle possible at times through early Monday
- Mild through mid week, with Tuesday the warmest day with highs in
the mid 70s.
- Active weather with thunderstorms and heavy rain possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday
- Cooler but still near seasonal normals late week into the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 115 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026
Guidance continues to depict a milder and somewhat more active
pattern, particularly during the middle of the coming week.
A broad and disorganized upper level wave will continue to bring
widespread cloud cover to the area at least through tonight, and
perhaps into Monday as well, though Monday will likely see more of
transition back to high cloud ahead of the larger and much more
intense system set to impact the area mid week.
PoPs will be kept to the slight chance or low chance categories
through early Monday as moisture will be somewhat disjointed, with
substantial low level dry air being gradually saturated from aloft,
and the airmass aloft drying as this occurs. This may produce weak
showers or even drizzle as the lower level moisture shallows out
tonight into early Monday, but in any case, any measurable amounts
that occur will be extremely light, with the primary impact of the
system being the cloud cover limiting diurnal temperature ranges.
Focus then shifts to the mid week, system, featuring a complex
series of upper level closed lows and a fairly potent surface
cyclone - highly amplified upper level jet structure will lead to a
slow moving system, which will likely provide a break of dry
conditions at least through midday Tuesday if not longer. PoPs will
be highest with frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, as
strongly boundary parallel flow is likely to confine much of the
precipitation to the immediate vicinity of the front.
Fairly strong shear will accompany the front, which may produce some
embedded thunderstorms, and perhaps a low chance for a shear
dominant strong storm or two in a high shear/low CAPE scenario,
though at the moment forecast profiles show poor lapse rates and
very minimal instability.
Low shower chances may linger into the late week and perhaps
portions of the weekend depending upon how the aforementioned
complex upper level pattern plays out, which current guidance is
very inconsistent with.
Temperatures will be mild but fairly solidly above normal early in
the week, with the cold front bringing them down, but still around
seasonal normals, which for the Indy area are roughly 40 and 60
degrees for lows and highs respectively.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026
Impacts:
- Showers possible mainly south, brief MVFR possible BMG
Discussion:
Mainly mid and high cloud are expected through the night, with
ceilings lowering a bit during the day today, but remaining well
into VFR ranges.
An upper level wave may produce some weak showers across portions of
the area, primarily the southern half. Will carry VCSH at all but
LAF for a time, and PROB30 groups for slightly higher chances at
BMG. Tomorrow evening into tomorrow night, MVFR ceilings will be
possible at BMG.
Winds will be below 10KT through the period, generally out of the
east tonight, turning southerly during the day, and back to the
southeast overnight Sunday night.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Nield
DISCUSSION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 1:15 AM EST---------------
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