JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 2:03 AM EDT833
FXUS63 KJKL 310603 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
203 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with warm afternoons and cool nights will persist
into the weekend.
- A low potential for rain will return by Sunday, with a more
significant system bringing a higher potential for widespread
rain arriving around the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.
UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
23Z sfc analysis shows a fresh area of high pressure in control
of the weather over eastern Kentucky as a dry cold front has
settled south of the state. This will slacken the post frontal
northeast winds and make for partly to mostly clear skies
overnight. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 50s in
the most sheltered valleys to the lower and mid 60s on the ridges.
Meanwhile, amid northeast winds of around 5 mph, dewpoints vary
from the mid and upper 30s north to the low and mid 50s in the
south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
A jet streak and upper trough passing through the Great Lakes is
pushing a moisture-starved cold front south through eastern Kentucky
through the remainder of the day. This front, essentially just a
refresh of the dry air mass to the north, will move into
Tennessee this evening, and then retreat back north as a warm
front Saturday as southwest flow aloft becomes established with
embedded passing shortwaves through daybreak Sunday.
The southwesterly flow aloft Saturday and Saturday night will usher
extensive high-level and then mid-level clouds across the area
during this time. However, low level winds will veer to
southeasterly resulting in low-level downslope drying off of the
Cumberland Mountains and other upstream subranges of the
Appalachians, resulting in milder overnight lows Saturday night
with much less in the way of valley fog.
Highs Saturday will only be two to three degrees below today's highs
as clouds increase across the area, with upper 60s far north to mid
70s across the south. Lows tonight in the lower 40s to lower 50s
will moderate into the 50s across the area Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
After roughly two weeks of dry weather, rain should finally make a
comeback during the long term period. The question is when. What at
one time looked like a good bet for damp weather returning on Sunday
is continuing to look less likely, with a greater probability for
rain now waiting until later in the new week.
The start of the period will see a large but meager-for-its-size
shortwave trough rippling through what would otherwise be a sizable
upper ridge over most of the eastern CONUS. The trough axis should
be laid out roughly from IA to the FL panhandle Sunday morning and
will pass eastward over the JKL forecast area Sunday night and early
Monday. At the surface, high pressure centered along or offshore of
the Mid Atlantic coast will ridge westward along the
central/southern Appalachians, with a cold air damming scenario
setting up in the flow against the eastern side of the mountains and
downsloping here. Along with downsloping, our low level flow will
still be largely originating out of the high, with moisture
advection off the Atlantic and gulf wrapping around us to the south
and west early in the week. Thus, as the initial upper trough passes
over, our moisture should still be limited in the lower levels. Will
look for mid-high clouds and virga to be abundant, but it is
questionable how much if any precip will be realized. The GFS has
trended toward the more consistently drier ECMWF for the early
week wave, and our POP is now dropping further in this forecast
cycle, as deterministic runs of all models are now mainly dry.
The western and northwestern portions of our area, furthest
removed from downsloping and closest to the moisture channel,
would have the best shot at rain.
By the time our early week trough weakens and departs to our east
Monday night, another stronger long wave trough should be
progressing eastward across the central CONUS, accompanied by a deep
low, or series of lows. Models do not quite agree on the evolution
of this system late in the week as it affects our area. The ECMWF is
deeper with the upper trough and slower to close off an upper low
compared to the GFS. However, they both eventually close off an
upper low and track it nearby at about the same time frame, with
another large surface low deepening significantly as it passes. The
stronger ECMWF solution results in colder air in the system's wake
by Friday. At this stage, the result of latest developments is an
increase in POP with the system in the Wednesday to Thursday time
frame, and low confidence in the temperature forecast by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026
VFR conditions with gradually increasing and lowering high clouds
are expected at the terminals through the TAF period as an upper
level disturbance begins to approach. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure
builds from the Great Lakes and into the Mid Atlantic states
through the period. This will lead to calm winds initially in many
valleys and light northeast to east winds elsewhere for the first
6 hours of the period. Winds will then become east to southeast
on Saturday, but will remain less than 10KT. Winds should trend to
light and variable to end the period following sunset on Saturday.
Otherwise, a few river valley locations could experience MVFR or
lower reductions in fog through 13Z or 14Z, but the TAF spots will
not be impacted.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 2:03 AM EDT---------------
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