PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 11:05 PM CDT930
FXUS63 KPAH 010405
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1105 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will move in tonight, with best chances (50-90%) between
9pm tonight and midday Sunday. The northern half of the region
will see 0.10" or less, while the southern half will see 0.33-50"
with higher amounts possible along the southern border.
- Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive Tuesday, then
linger through at least Wednesday evening. Forecast rainfall
totals are in the 1-2" range, with the heaviest across west
Kentucky.
- Temperatures will remain near or above normal through the next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
An initial upper-level disturbance has spread lots of mid clouds
across the region today, and has tried to produce some light
showers or sprinkles, especially over southeast Missouri.
Guidance has some 20+% PoPs, so threw in a slight chance of
measurable showers with some sprinkles surrounding it this
afternoon. The light shower chances will spread from the
Mississippi River northeast through the Tri State through the
afternoon.
A more substantial disturbance will bring scattered to numerous
showers to the region later this evening through much of Sunday.
Instability will mostly remain well to the south of the region,
but a stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out along the
southern border of the region overnight, especially near the
Bootheel. Ensembles indicate that the precipitable water values
remain near 200% of normal, so there certainly is enough
moisture to be of concern for heavy rainfall and flooding.
However, the forcing will not be strong enough or persist long
enough to support a serious concern this weekend.
As for timing, it appears that the initial surge of showers
northward into the area will occur in the 0-3Z time frame,
mainly over southeast Missouri and the Purchase Area of
Kentucky. The main rain event throughout the region is expected
from 03Z-18Z Sunday. Forecast rainfall amounts will range from
around 0.66" in the far south to near zero north of I-64.
Showers may linger through Sunday afternoon near the eastern
border of the region. Some isolated light showers will then
linger through Sunday night, mainly over west Kentucky.
High pressure aloft should keep the area dry Monday into early
Tuesday, as our next storm system organizes over the Plains.
Forecast winds on Tuesday have trended downward and are not
expected to push Advisory criteria (40mph).
Guidance is in reasonable agreement in a north/south oriented
band of showers ahead of a cold front moving slowly eastward
across Quad State Tuesday afternoon through at least midday
Wednesday. Instability will once again be limited with the upper
system well north of the region, but the NBM does have a
mention of thunder for much of this period. Precipitable water
values remain around 200% of normal, so with the slow eastward
motion of the band, some heavy rainfall and isolated flooding
issues may develop. The current forecast rainfall ranges from
around 2" in the southeast to around 1" in the northwest. The
12Z ensembles only have 20-40% chance of reaching just 1" of
rainfall, so the current forecast is well to the high side of
the latest guidance.
The front should pass at some point Wednesday and that will push
the low-level moisture east of the Quad State. While the upper-
levels will remain active with plenty of energy streaming
by, the NBM has rain chances gradually tapering off by Friday.
Based on the latest guidance, the forecast may be dry by
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
MVFR/IFR conditions will gradually spread across the western
terminals Sunday morning, continuing across the rest of the
region into the afternoon. Intervals of showers will also be
possible, with the greatest probabilities peaking in the morning
at KPAH/KCGI where the steadiest precipitation will fall.
While drier conditions filter in during the afternoon hours,
low stratus will prevail into Sunday evening with pockets of
drizzle and a 20% chance of isolated light rain showers.
Guidance is hinting at a 30-40% chance of LIFR cigs at KCGI/KPAH
and perhaps KMVN along with the same probability for IFR cigs
at KEVV/KOWB.
Winds will be primarily southeast between 6-10 kts during the
day Sunday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 11:05 PM CDT---------------
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