PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 7:01 AM EDT405
FXUS61 KPBZ 301101
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
701 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues into the weekend
2) Minimal rain chances early next week, with higher chances by
mid to late week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A weak cold front will continue to drop southeast across the
Upper Ohio Valley region this morning, though no rain is
expected with a lack of deep layer moisture. The main impact of
this front will be increased cloud cover along the front, with
scattered stratocu in cold advection through the afternoon.
Highs today should also be around 10 degrees below Thursday's
readings.
Dry weather is then expected to continue through the weekend as
surface high pressure builds across the region. Mid and high
level clouds should gradually increase through this period ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough across the Midwest.
Temperatures should moderate again by Sunday, with readings
around 10 degrees above average.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A weakening trough is expected to track slowly east across the
Upper Ohio Valley region Sunday night into Monday. A lack of
moisture should be the main limiting factor on seeing any rain
with this system, though slight chances POPs were maintained.
Model ensembles indicate ridging will then build across the
Upper Ohio Valley region through early Wednesday, ahead of a
deepening central CONUS trough. This should maintain dry weather
and warm temperatures across the area. Rain chances are
expected to begin to increase by mid to late week as the trough
slowly approaches the region, though uncertainty remains in the
strength and forward speed of the trough.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy MVFR CIGs continue early this morning in the wake of a
weak cold front. Behind this front, increasing dry air is
already beginning to fracture MVFR stratocu and VFR is likely
to quickly return to all ports after sunrise. SCT stratocu
likely linger through the remainder of the day in cold advection
and NW flow. NWerly winds are expected to be sustained near 10
kts across much of the region today, with gusts up to 20 kts
possible along the eastern ridges. Wind and clouds diminish this
evening as high pressure builds in.
Outlook...
Outside of any early morning river valley fog on Saturday, VFR
is expected into early next week. A disturbance will likely
bring an increase in mid level clouds Sunday night and Monday,
with only a slight chance of rain.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 7:01 AM EDT---------------
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