IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 12:54 PM EDT256
FXUS63 KIND 301654
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1254 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly Sunny and Cooler today.
- Best rain chances return Saturday Night into Sunday.
- Mild and wet pattern likely Monday through Thursday.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Only minor updates needed to the forecast this morning, mainly
concerning dew points and sky cover. Patchy fog this morning has
been dissipating and skies are clear. Cirrus has largely remained to
the west so far and we will have a few hours of clear skies before
these high clouds arrive. We have therefore steepened the
temperature rise this morning before allowing it to level off
somewhat as clouds move in. Additionally, we've added more weight to
the HRRR for dew points in anticipation of efficient boundary layer
mixing today. ACARS soundings out of IND show very dry air above the
surface. Dew points mixing down below blended guidance appears
likely even with high clouds moving in.
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across
southern Indiana near the Ohio River. Aloft, water vapor showed a
ridge axis stretching from the lower Mississippi to the northern
plains states. GOES19 showed clear skies across much of Indiana and
points to the northwest, dominated by the high pressure system,
while mainly high cloud was streaming across the plains states on
the windward side of the ridge axis.
Today...
The upstream ridge will continue to produce subsidence
across the area as the surface high pressure system pushes southeast
into the Great Lakes, Indiana and Ohio. Forecast soundings remain
dry through the day. Thus Mostly Sunny skies will be expected, along
with cooler high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70.
Tonight and Saturday...
The ridge axis to the west is expected to push east of Indiana late
tonight and Into Saturday. This will end subsidence across Indiana
as windward side upglide begins. The first sign of this will be
invading CI this evening and into Saturday. Forecast soundings show
saturation aloft as the high clouds found to the west begin to reach
Indiana. The lower levels remain very dry however. This will be due
to the strong surface high pressure in place east of Indiana. Thus
dry weather will be expected to tonight and Saturday as high clouds
increase across the area.
Saturday Night and Sunday...
A warm front is suggested to develop over Southern IL and western KY
by Saturday night and begin to push across Indiana through Sunday
morning. The 300K GFS Isentropic surface shows moderate lift, with
specific humidities over 6 g/kg. Forecast soundings show a top down
saturation occurring through the overnight and into Sunday with
pwats around 1.3 inches. Meanwhile aloft, a moderate upper trough is
suggested to push in to Illinois and Indiana providing forcing. Thus
there are plenty of ingredients for rain during this time and
confidence is high for widespread measurable rain as these features
pass through Sunday. Clouds and precip will result in a cooler day
on Sunday with highs only in the lower 60s.
Monday through Thursday...
A wet and mild pattern is suggested to be in place for much of the
next work week. An upper trough is suggested to be over Indiana on
Monday, with Sunday/s forcing dynamics exiting east. Still plenty of
moisture will remain in place as the 300K isentropic surface shows
lift with high specific humidities near 6 g/kg. Forecast soundings
start the day with a saturated column, but dry air is shown to
intrude into the column through the day. Thus pops will be needed
mainly during the morning hours.
Models suggest a much stronger upper trough over the plains on
Tuesday, poised to push toward Indiana by Thursday before becoming a
closed upper low over the Tennessee valley. Cyclonic flow will
remain across the area through this period. Within the lower levels
an associated strong surface low will be approaching from the
plains, allowing for a warm and moist gulf flow streaming into the
Ohio valley. Forecast soundings through Thursday should periods of
deep saturation and high pwats as these upper dynamics remain
passing through our region. Thus pops will need to be included on
Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain above normal
given the warm and moist southerly flow, but cooler than we have
seen this past week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
Broad area of high pressure over the Great Lakes with an attendant
ridge axis extending southward through the eastern Ohio valley will
move SE into the eastern seaboard through Saturday. VFR conditions
will be prevalent at all terminals owing to dry low level E-NE flow
gradually becoming E-SE, with wind speeds less than 10 kts.
A weak area of showers over central IL will develop slowly eastward
this afternoon and may survive and reach KLAF before dissipating
overnight. For now the potential appears to be low enough to not
warrant inclusion in the TAF.
Meanwhile, copious mid-high level clouds associated with an
approaching weak storm system moving up from the southern Plains
will overspread the region tonight through Saturday with OVC
conditions expected at all terminals by 12Z Saturday. Forecast
soundings show cloud ceilings will lower to as low as 080 briefly in
the morning but will average between 100-150 through remainder of
the day. A few virga showers are possible Saturday, but given the
degree of dry air in the sub-cloud layer, no precip is expected at
the terminals.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 12:54 PM EDT---------------
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