JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 1:25 AM EDT631
FXUS63 KJKL 290525
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
125 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist
into the weekend.
- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
UPDATE Issued at 820 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2026
00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the east of the state in
control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to
settle the winds and keep skies mostly clear. Currently,
temperatures range from the low 50s in the most sheltered valleys
to the mid 60s on the ridges. Meanwhile, amid light winds,
dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 40s with a few ridges
spots in the upper 30s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2026
Surface high pressure positioned over the central-southern
Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont region will dominate our
weather through the short term period, keeping a dry air mass in
place with mainly clear skies. A mid-upper level shortwave trough
presently over the northern plains and southern Manitoba will move
eastward to southern Quebec by Thursday night, at which time
another wave will move southeast over Ontario. These waves will
promote broad troughing over the northeast CONUS, which in turn
will provide support for a cold front front to approach our area
from the north on Thursday night. It may make its way into our
area by dawn on Friday, but it would be losing momentum and
weakening and would have very little moisture available. Thus, if
there is any impact through Thursday night, it shouldn't be
anything more than a few clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2026
The extended period opens Friday featuring unseasonably warm
conditions initially, followed by increasing low-level moisture
discrepancies as a weakening cold front sags toward the Ohio
Valley. Aloft, broad southwesterly flow will dominate as 500 mb
heights build to around 584 dam - placing values near the 90th to
95th climatological percentile across eastern Kentucky. This
anomalous ridge will support strong warm-air advection, pushing
daytime temperatures into the lower 70s on Friday.
At the surface, this decaying boundary is expected to sag across
portions of the forecast area Friday before stalling and lifting
back north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday. Model
guidance diverges significantly regarding boundary-layer moisture
ahead of this boundary. Deterministic ECMWF runs aggressively
recover surface dew points from the low-to-mid 40s into the mid 50s
on Friday. However, other guidance favors a prevailing easterly
to northeasterly component around the surface ridge centered to
our northeast. This trajectory will maintain a feed of drier
continental air near the surface. Given these boundary-layer
winds, dew points were blended down a few degrees below the
baseline NBM to limit an overly aggressive, premature moistening
trend.
To our southwest, the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance - currently
in the Eastern Pacific - will weaken and lift northeast over the
higher terrain of Mexico Friday into Saturday, getting ingested into
the subtropical jet. Meanwhile, broader troughing over the western
CONUS will feature an upper-level low digging from the Pacific
Northwest into the Desert Southwest through the weekend. As this
western system amplifies and cuts off, it will tap that tropical
moisture plume and channel it northeastward Sunday into Monday ahead
of a deepening Central Plains cyclone.
For eastern Kentucky, this will translate to high and mid-level
clouds filtering in from the southwest late Friday afternoon and
evening, gradually lowering and thickening through Saturday. Despite
increasing clouds, unseasonable warmth will hold on across the
region for Halloween, with afternoon highs reaching the low-to-mid
70s - roughly 5 to 10 degrees above late October normals. Evening
conditions for prime trick-or-treat hours look favorable, featuring
rain-free, cloudy skies as temperatures fall from the upper 60s
around sunset into the upper 50s by midnight. Shower chances will
then ramp up from the southwest after midnight as temperatures
settle into the lower 50s, with rain continuing to expand across
the area through the day, Sunday.
Considerable uncertainty remains for daytime highs, to close out
the weekend highlighted by a 10 to 12+ degree ensemble spread
across the area. The NBM has trended warmer, populating highs in
the upper 60s to around 70, supported by the 12Z ECMWF in the
lower 70s. Conversely, the 12Z GFS remains a cool outlier in the
upper 50s, aligning closely with the NAEFS 10th percentile. This
discrepancy hinges on boundary progression and rainfall onset. A
quicker arrival of showers would lead to those unseasonably cool
conditions, while a slower arrival would allow temperatures to
warm into the 60s to near 70. Given the consensus between the NBM
and ECMWF, leaned toward the warmer baseline, but this does entail
a distinct bust potential.
Showers will persist through Sunday night before gradually tapering
off into Monday, with surface high pressure east of the forecast
area maintaining southeasterly winds and temperatures warming into
the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
The Rex block pattern will hold firm across the Ohio Valley through
much of Tuesday, keeping eastern Kentucky unseasonably warm under
strong mid-level ridging. While the baseline NBM continues to
populate low-end slight chance PoPs (15 to 20 percent) on Tuesday,
this appears to be an artifact of timing discrepancies among
ensemble guidance, with a few faster members ejecting the cutoff low
seemingly premature. Given the strong subsidence beneath the
anomalous ridge (NAEFS 500mb heights near the 90th percentile),
expect Tuesday to remain largely dry, with afternoon temperatures
climbing into the lower 70s.
Rain chances ramp up significantly Tuesday night into Wednesday as
the block breaks down and the cutoff low lifts into the Upper
Midwest and Ohio Valley, driving a strong cold front toward our
region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2026
VFR conditions were present area-wide at the 06Z TAF issuance,
and aside from early morning river valley fog, will prevail
through the period. The fog will bring localized IFR or worse
conditions, but will not affect TAF sites. Winds will be light and
variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 1:25 AM EDT---------------
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